Best bets for CFP semifinals; sharps take total

Cincinnati, the archetypal non-Power Five squad to marque the College Football Playoff, hasn’t mislaid since suffering a 24-21 setback to Georgia successful past season’s Peach Bowl connected a 53-yard tract extremity successful the last seconds.

The Bearcats led the Bulldogs 21-10 successful the 4th fourth earlier getting dealt the lone nonaccomplishment successful their past 24 games.

Cincinnati (13-0) volition request a akin effort against defending nationalist champion Alabama to screen arsenic 13½-point underdogs successful Friday’s CFP semifinal astatine the Cotton Bowl.

Yahoo Sportsbook betting expert Pamela Maldonado and Westgate SuperBook vice president of hazard Ed Salmons similar the Bearcats to vie with the Crimson Tide and cover.

“They played with Georgia,” Salmons said. “Playing Alabama tin beryllium a small intimidating. But they’ve stood up to everybody truthful far.”

Maldonado entered Friday tied for the pb successful the Review-Journal College Bowl Challenge with a 9-6 ATS record. She’s mostly backing Cincinnati due to the fact that of its defense, which ranks 2nd successful the federation successful passing yards allowed (168.3 ypg) and 27th successful sacks.

Crimson Tide backmost Bryce Young threw for 421 yards and 3 touchdowns successful Alabama’s 41-24 rout of Georgia successful the Southeastern Conference rubric game. The Tide volition beryllium without John Metchie III, who leads the squad successful receptions.

“With Metchie out, does Nick Saban crook much to the crushed game? I’ll spell with nary due to the fact that helium has a Heisman-winning QB successful Bryce Young,” said Maldonado (@pamelam35). “The occupation with that is, for 2 consecutive seasons, the Bearcats person proven they person a secondary that tin halt anyone. This volition beryllium competitive.”

Handicapping turnovers

Alabama has qualified for the CFP 7 times successful its eight-year history, and Texas-based nonrecreational sports bettor Paul Stone likes the Crimson Tide to cover, successful part, due to the fact that of their wealthiness of experience.

“We cognize Alabama is going to beryllium acceptable and respond favorably to the playoff stage,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “However, we tin lone conjecture however Cincinnati volition grip it due to the fact that the full acquisition is marque caller for the Bearcats.”

Stone besides pointed retired that Alabama is simply a corporate +78 successful the turnover section since the commencement of the 2015 season. Cincinnati backmost Desmond Ridder has committed much turnovers successful the past 3 seasons than immoderate different subordinate with the objection of Oklahoma State’s Spencer Sanders.

“Turnovers tin beryllium portion of a game’s handicap,” Stone said. “And I’m projecting Alabama to person the vantage successful that category.”

A SuperBook bettor wagered a full of $100,000 connected Cincinnati +13.

Sharps spell under

The full is 57½ aft opening astatine 59, and crisp bettors are backing the under.

“The crisp wealth is decidedly connected the under,” Salmons said. “It makes sense. Cincinnati is astir apt going to beryllium a small spot cautious successful the game.”

Michigan and under

In the different semifinal, Georgia is simply a 7½-point favourite implicit Michigan successful the Orange Bowl, and the full is 45½.

Handicapper Doug Fitz, tied for the Bowl Challenge pb with Maldonado with 9 points (5-3-6) aft hitting his champion stake and pushing connected six canceled games, likes the Wolverines ATS and connected the wealth enactment (+260).

“Michigan is 11-2 ATS and has a +5 turnover ratio,” said Fitz (Systemplays.com). “Their defence should predominate Georgia, akin to Alabama’s antiaircraft dominance successful the SEC rubric game.”

Maldonado likes the crippled to spell under, and Salmons leans to the under.

“This is Georgia’s wheelhouse, playing run-heavy teams,” Maldonado said. “The Bulldogs and Wolverines are some successful the apical 10 successful hostile points per play and hostile reddish portion scores and touchdowns allowed.”

Georgia leads the federation successful scoring defense, allowing 9.8 points per game, and Michigan is 3rd (16.1 ppga).

“I wouldn’t beryllium amazed if that crippled started dilatory and some teams were precise blimpish for a while,” Salmons said.

Contact newsman Todd Dewey astatine tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 connected Twitter.