College football picks: Georgia’s defense will stifle Alabama

Alabama’s streak of 92 consecutive games arsenic a betting favourite volition extremity Saturday successful the Southeastern Conference title game.

The Crimson Tide won outright successful their past 2 underdog spots — astatine Georgia successful 2015 and vs. Florida successful the 2009 SEC rubric game.

Not this time.

It’s shocking that Alabama made it this acold with a atrocious violative enactment and anemic walk coverage.

Georgia’s top-ranked defence volition predominate the enactment of scrimmage.

Alabama mightiness beryllium down 4 of its 5 assistance moving backs, depending connected Brian Robinson Jr.’s wounded status. The different back, Trey Sanders, is carrying the effects of large injuries from the past 2 years.

The Tide’s tally defence is statistically amended than Georgia’s, ranking archetypal successful expected points added per drawback and 2nd successful yards per transportation allowed.

Georgia runs connected 60 percent of its snaps. But the Bulldogs are much committed than they are good, ranking 76th successful EPA per snap.

Georgia backmost Stetson Bennett is 2nd nationally successful passer rating, and Bulldogs apical receiver George Pickens yet returned from an ACL teardrop past week.

Alabama is 68th successful hostile passer rating, 62nd successful EPA per drawback against the walk and grades arsenic the 50th-best walk rush, per Pro Football Focus.

The Tide request a low-scoring crippled to cover. That means Georgia manager Kirby Smart stubbornly sticking to the tally coupled with a Bennett mistake, a large peculiar teams play oregon an explosive passing play to Alabama wideout Jameson Williams.

For once, this is excessively overmuch of a mismatch successful favour of the Bulldogs. Take Georgia -6½ implicit Alabama.

Four much plays (home squad successful CAPS):

Houston-Cincinnati U52½: Cincinnati’s defence is 4th successful EPA per drawback and 10th successful SP+. Houston’s defence is sixth and 15th successful those aforesaid stats. Also, Houston’s walk discourtesy is 32nd successful EPA per snap, and its unreserved discourtesy is 72nd. The Bearcats diagnostic aggregate NFL draught picks successful their secondary. The Cougars let lone 3.0 yards per carry, and Cincinnati runs the shot 54 percent of the time.

Pittsburgh (-3) implicit Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons bushed North Carolina State (SP+ No. 12), but mislaid to Clemson (No. 9) and North Carolina (No. 46) and won one-possession games against Louisville (No. 47) and Syracuse (No. 73). Wake Forest is somewhat amended than Pitt connected offense, but some teams tin score. The occupation for Wake Forest is connected the different broadside of the ball. It ranks sixth successful SP+ discourtesy but 90th successful SP+ defense, and the Panthers fertile seventh and 37th.

Baylor-Oklahoma State U46½: Each squad has allowed 30 points oregon much conscionable erstwhile this season. Their regular-season crippled produced 38 points. Baylor backmost Gerry Bohanon mightiness beryllium constricted if helium plays. If helium misses the game, I wouldn’t expect freshman backup Blake Shapen to beryllium effectual against what is astir apt the nation’s second-best defence down Georgia. Baylor besides has a beardown defense, and Oklahoma State’s discourtesy is 75th successful EPA per snap.

San Diego State (-6) implicit Utah State: The Aggies person produced 39 violative plays of astatine slightest 30 yards, 1 down the nationalist lead. But Boise State, Brigham Young and Wyoming held Utah State to an mean of 13.3 points per game. Those 3 defenses assertion an mean SP+ antiaircraft fertile of 44th. San Diego State is ninth successful that category. The Aztecs are tied for ninth successful plays of 30+ yards allowed and are peculiarly bully against the pass, wherever Utah State thrives.

Last week: 1-3-1

Season: 33-31-1

Christopher Smith of AL.com is providing assemblage shot investigation for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @CFBlocksmith connected Twitter.