NFL betting breakdown: Week 1

BETTING BREAKDOWN

“Dr. Alan” Dumond, @Wizardpicks, Wizardraceandsports.com

Steelers astatine Bills

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Bills -6½, 48½

Analysis: Polar opposites is the champion mode to picture nationalist cognition of these teams, arsenic the nationalist is precocious connected the Bills and acceptable to slice the Steelers. Last season, Pittsburgh’s defence kept the high-powered Bills discourtesy successful check, and Buffalo backmost Josh Allen played 1 of his worst games, albeit successful a 26-15 win. The quality successful that 1 was Ben Roethlisberger’s interception returned for a touchdown. Steelers manager Mike Tomlin volition person his squad prepared. The ever pugnacious Pittsburgh defense, led by 2020 NFL sack person T.J. Watt, volition support the Steelers competitive, with a accidental astatine an outright upset.

By the numbers: The Bills scored a franchise-record 501 points past season. … The Steelers led the NFL successful sacks with 56.

Pick: Steelers 24, Bills 21

Jets astatine Panthers

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Panthers -4, 44½

Analysis: The storyline is caller Panthers backmost Sam Darnold’s accidental to get revenge vs. his erstwhile team. The Jets are successful rebuilding mode with first-year manager Robert Saleh and rookie QB Zach Wilson. The Panthers are besides rebuilding, but they are further on than the Jets. Rookie coaches and quarterbacks connected the roadworthy successful Week 1 are usually not a look for success.

By the numbers: The Jets finished past successful the NFL successful scoring past season, averaging 15.2 points. … Darnold threw much interceptions (11) than touchdowns (nine) past season.

Pick: Panthers 24, Jets 14

Jaguars astatine Texans

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Jaguars -3, 45½

Analysis: Two rookie coaches quadrate disconnected successful this divisional crippled with Houston’s David Culley and Jacksonville’s Urban Meyer. The quality mightiness travel down to the quarterbacks: Jaguars No. 1 wide draught prime Trevor Lawrence and Texans seasoned Tyrod Taylor. Rookie coaches and rookie quarterbacks connected the roadworthy successful Week 1 are usually not a look for success. The Texans person the dubious favoritism of being the lone NFL squad to person been made an underdog successful each 17 of their games. This mightiness beryllium Houston’s champion accidental astatine a victory.

By the numbers: The Texans swept the play bid with the Jaguars past play by scores of 30-14 and 27-25. … Taylor has a 24-22-1 grounds arsenic a starter and a touchdown-interception ratio of 54-20.

Pick: Texans 20, Jaguars 17

Cardinals astatine Titans

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Titans -3, 53½

Analysis: The Titans are looking to atone for their aboriginal exit from the playoffs past season. The Cardinals anticipation to gain their archetypal playoff berth successful the 3rd twelvemonth of the manager Kliff Kingsbury/QB Kyler Murray era. The Titans person a potent discourtesy down QB Ryan Tannehill and 2020 NFL rushing person Derrick Henry. Both teams tin score.

By the numbers: The Titans led the league successful turnover differential (+11) past season. … The Cardinals are 2-0 ATS successful Week 1 the past 2 years, covering some games arsenic underdogs.

Pick: Titans 31, Cardinals 28

Chargers astatine Washington

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Washington -1, 44½

Analysis: The Chargers are led by rookie manager Brandon Staley and QB Justin Herbert, the NFL’s 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Football Team is led by antiaircraft extremity Chase Young, the 2020 Defensive Rookie of the Year. Washington has a caller backmost successful Ryan Fitzpatrick. With a caller manager connected 1 sideline and a caller starting backmost connected the other, expect a low-scoring game.

By the numbers: Herbert had a TD/interception ratio of 31-10 past season. … Fitzpatrick had a TD/INT ratio of 13-8.

Pick: Washington 23 Chargers 20

Eagles astatine Falcons

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Falcons -3, 48½

Analysis: This is simply a matchup of 2 rookie coaches successful Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni and Atlanta’s Arthur Smith. Both teams are successful rebuilding mode. Falcons longtime prima wide receiver Julio Jones is gone, but recently named squad skipper Calvin Ridley is inactive catching passes successful Atlanta. Falcons seasoned QB Matt Ryan has the wide vantage implicit Eagles second-year unproven QB Jalen Hurts.

By the numbers: Ryan is 11-2 consecutive up and ATS successful Week 1. … Hurts was 1-4 SU past play arsenic a starter.

Pick: Falcons 27, Eagles 20

Seahawks astatine Colts

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Seahawks -3, 49

Analysis: The Seahawks are 3-point roadworthy favorites aft the Colts opened -3. The enactment determination was based mostly upon the quality that caller Indianapolis QB Carson Wentz would not start. It turns retired that Wentz volition start, but the enactment hasn’t moved from Seattle -3. The betting nationalist is each implicit the Seahawks.

By the numbers: The Colts are 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS successful Week 1. … Seahawks QB Russell Wilson is 12-1 SU and 9-2-2 ATS successful the Eastern clip zone.

Pick: Colts 24, Seahawks 20

Vikings astatine Bengals

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Vikings -3, 47½

Analysis: The Vikings effort to rebound from a 7-9 play with a revamped defence that returns stud DE Danielle Hunter. But starting linebacker and antiaircraft signal-caller Anthony Barr has been ruled out. The Bengals are hoping that franchise QB Joe Burrow volition play astatine the aforesaid precocious level helium did past play earlier helium suffered a season-ending genu injury. Expect an improved Minnesota defence and perchance a dilatory commencement from the Bengals discourtesy to pb to a lower-scoring game.

By the numbers: The Vikings are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS arsenic roadworthy favorites. … Under manager Zac Taylor, Cincinnati is 5-11 SU and 6-7-3 ATS astatine location the 2 past years.

Pick: Vikings 24, Bengals 17

49ers astatine Lions

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: 49ers -8, 45½

Analysis: Lions rookie manager Dan Campbell inherits a squad successful rebuilding mode. Detroit starts caller QB Jared Goff, who regressed severely past play with the Rams. The 49ers look to commencement what they anticipation volition beryllium a bounce-back play with a win. San Francisco welcomes backmost galore of its injured prima players, astir notably QB Jimmy Garoppolo and DE Nick Bosa. Niners manager Kyle Shanahan has plentifulness of acquisition game-planning against Goff.

By the numbers: The 49ers were -11 successful turnover differential past season. … The Lions were -9 successful turnover differential successful 2020.

Pick: 49ers 28, Lions 17

Browns astatine Chiefs

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Chiefs -5½, 54½

Analysis: The Browns volition effort to avenge past season’s 22-17 playoff nonaccomplishment to the Chiefs. Cleveland’s champion accidental astatine an upset is to tally the shot with its outstanding duo of RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs volition effort to atone for their Super Bowl nonaccomplishment to Tampa Bay down QB Patrick Mahomes and a revamped violative line. The Browns person a revamped defence with galore caller starters. Expect a high-scoring game.

By the numbers: Chiefs manager Andy Reid is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS successful Week 1. … The Browns are winless successful Week 1 since 2004.

Pick: Chiefs 35, Browns 24

Dolphins astatine Patriots

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Patriots -3, 43½

Analysis: The Patriots instrumentality respective starters who opted retired past play due to the fact that of COVID-19 and commencement rookie QB Mac Jones, their first-round draught prime retired of Alabama. The Dolphins commencement second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa, different Alabama product. With defensive-minded coaches successful New England’s Bill Belichick and Miami’s Brian Flores, expect a lower-scoring game.

By the numbers: Belichick is 12-2 SU and 8-5-1 ATS successful Week 1. … Flores is 0-2 SU and ATS successful Week 1.

Pick: Dolphins 23, Patriots 20

Broncos astatine Giants

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Broncos -3, 41½

Analysis: The Broncos are roadworthy favorites with seasoned QB Teddy Bridgewater taking implicit for Drew Lock, past year’s turnover-prone starter. The Giants anticipation QB Daniel Jones tin chopped down connected his turnovers and instrumentality a large measurement guardant successful his 3rd year. New York RB Saquon Barkley volition instrumentality from a season-ending genu wounded and should instrumentality immoderate unit disconnected Jones.

By the numbers: The Giants are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS successful Week 1. … Under manager Vic Fangio, the Broncos are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS successful Week 1. … The Broncos were an NFL-worst -16 successful turnover differential past season.

Pick: Broncos 20, Giants 13

Packers astatine Saints

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Packers -3½, 50

Analysis: Hurricane Ida caused this crippled to beryllium moved to a neutral tract successful Jacksonville, Florida. With the status of surefire Hall of Famer Drew Brees, the Saints volition commencement QB Jameis Winston, the lone subordinate of the NFL’s 30-30 nine with 30 interceptions and 30 TD passes successful the aforesaid season. The Packers invited backmost 2020 NFL MVP QB Aaron Rodgers, who unsuccessfully tried to unit his mode retired of Green Bay.

By the numbers: The constituent dispersed flipped from an opening enactment of Saints -3 to Saints +3½. … Packers manager Matt Lafleur is 2-0 SU and ATS successful Week 1.

Pick: Packers 31, Saints 24

Bears astatine Rams

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Rams -7½, 46½

Analysis: The Rams invited fans into their caller stadium for the archetypal clip successful premier time. Los Angeles volition beryllium led by caller QB Matthew Stafford and the NFL’s top-ranked defense, anchored by the 2020 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, antiaircraft tackle Aaron Donald, and All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Bears besides person a caller backmost successful seasoned Andy Dalton, a spot holder until Chicago’s first-round draught pick, Justin Fields, is acceptable to instrumentality over.

By the numbers: Rams manager Sean McVay is 4-0 SU and ATS successful Week 1. … Stafford has started 136 consecutive games, the seventh-longest streak successful NFL history. … Dalton is 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.

Pick: Rams 27, Bears 13

Ravens astatine Raiders

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Ravens -4, 50½

Analysis: The Raiders invited fans into Allegiant Stadium for the archetypal clip successful premier time. The Ravens are banged up, having mislaid 3 cardinal players to season-ending injuries successful moving backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards and cornerback Marcus Peters. Raiders QB Derek Carr looks to physique disconnected his beardown show past season. But for the Raiders to succeed, they request large betterment from their defense.

By the numbers: Ravens manager John Harbaugh is 10-3 SU and ATS successful Week 1. … Raiders manager Jon Gruden is 2-1 SU and ATS successful Week 1 the past 2 years.

Pick: Raiders 27, Ravens 24