NFL betting breakdown: Week 11

BETTING BREAKDOWN

Mark Franco, Vegasinsider.com, Francosports.com

Lions (0-8-1) astatine Browns (5-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Browns -12½, 42½

Analysis: The Lions are coming disconnected a coagulated effort connected defence successful past week’s 16-16 necktie successful Pittsburgh. The Browns are coming disconnected a 45-7 beatdown by the Patriots successful New England, wherever they were outplayed connected some sides of the ball. I don’t person a coagulated sentiment for either side, but I thin to the under, arsenic Cleveland backmost Baker Mayfield is not 100 percent.

By the numbers: Detroit is 4-12-1 ATS successful its past 17 games successful November. … The Browns are 8-22-1 ATS successful November and are 1-11 ATS aft accumulating little than 250 full yards successful their erstwhile game. … The Lions are connected a 6-1 nether tally arsenic underdogs.

Pick: Browns 19, Lions 13

49ers (4-5) astatine Jaguars (2-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: 49ers -6½, 45

Analysis: The Jaguars mislaid astatine Indianapolis past week, and their discourtesy has been downright bad, arsenic they are successful the bottommost 10 successful the NFL. It starts astatine quarterback, wherever Trevor Lawrence threw for lone 162 yards past week and 118 the week earlier successful a 9-6 location triumph implicit the Bills. San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown for 1,936 yards successful 8 games. The 49ers should person nary occupation doing capable to get the roadworthy triumph and cover.

By the numbers: The Niners are 5-2 ATS arsenic a roadworthy favorite. … Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS aft a screen and 2-5 ATS arsenic a location underdog. … San Francisco has covered the past 4 meetings.

Pick: 49ers 31, Jaguars 19

Colts (5-5) astatine Bills (6-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bills -7, 49½

Analysis: Are the Bills inactive the squad to bushed successful the AFC? I’m not truthful sure. Buffalo came live past week against the worst defence successful the league successful the Jets. But the Bills person not looked similar they did earlier this season. The Colts person been playing bully shot and are successful the hunt for a playoff spot aft winning 4 of their past 5 games.

By the numbers: Indianapolis is 8-2 ATS connected the roadworthy and 4-0 ATS aft an ATS loss. … The Colts are connected a 10-1 implicit streak against teams with a winning record. … Buffalo is riding a 15-6-1 implicit streak aft a straight-up win.

Pick: Bills 27, Colts 24

Dolphins (3-7) astatine Jets (2-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Dolphins -3½, 44½

Analysis: The Dolphins person won and covered 2 consecutive games vs. the Texans and Ravens. Miami’s defence was lights retired vs. Baltimore connected “Thursday Night Football.” The Dolphins person had other clip to prepare, portion the Jets are coming disconnected a 45-17 nonaccomplishment to the Bills. New York’s defence is ranked past successful the NFL, and present they’re starting aged antheral Joe Flacco astatine quarterback. Miami volition people capable and triumph down its defense.

By the numbers: The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS successful November and 16-7 ATS aft a cover. … The Jets are 11-25 ATS successful November and 5-17 ATS vs. the AFC East.

Pick: Dolphins 30, Jets 21

Football Team (3-6) astatine Panthers (5-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Panthers -3½, 43

Analysis: These teams pulled disconnected 2 astonishing wins past week, arsenic Washington upset Tampa Bay and Carolina crushed Arizona. The Football Team volition person to woody with Panthers prima moving backmost Christian McCaffrey and QB Cam Newton, who sparked the squad past week. McCaffrey had a coagulated crippled against the Cardinals’ stout defence with 161 full yards from scrimmage.

By the numbers: The Football Team is 1-5 ATS arsenic an underdog and 1-4 ATS connected the road. … The Panthers are 5-2 ATS aft a straight-up triumph of much than 14 points and 5-2 ATS successful November.

Pick: Panthers 26, Football Team 17

Ravens (6-3) astatine Bears (3-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Ravens -6, 44½

Analysis: The Ravens were dominated by the Dolphins successful a 22-10 nonaccomplishment connected “Thursday Night Football.” The Bears are connected a four-game losing streak aft their bye. Chicago rookie QB Justin Fields threw for a season-high 291 yards and ran for 45 past clip retired against the Steelers successful his 2nd consecutive coagulated outing. Baltimore’s defence has been fantabulous against the run, but is past successful the NFL against the pass. The Bears are 31st connected offense, generating 280.7 yards per game. But I deliberation Fields volition marque a difference.

By the numbers: The Ravens are 1-6 ATS arsenic favorites and 0-4 ATS successful November. … The Bears are 6-13 ATS vs. teams with a winning grounds and 5-16-1 ATS aft their bye week. … Baltimore is connected a 6-1 nether tally connected the road. … Chicago is connected a 17-6 nether streak astatine location and 5-1 nether surge against teams with a winning record.

Pick: Bears 23, Ravens 20

Saints (5-4) astatine Eagles (4-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Eagles -2½, 42½

Analysis: The Saints person mislaid back-to-back games by 2 points each to Atlanta and Tennessee. This is conscionable the 4th clip successful the past 5 seasons that New Orleans has mislaid consecutive games. It has not mislaid 3 consecutive during that span. Saints moving backmost Alvin Kamara volition beryllium sidelined again. The Eagles person been a astonishment with immoderate large wins, including a ascendant triumph astatine Denver past week. Philadelphia is 0-4 astatine home.

By the numbers: The Saints are 9-2 ATS connected the roadworthy against teams with a losing location grounds and 36-15 ATS connected the roadworthy overall. … New Orleans is 35-16 ATS arsenic an underdog. … The Eagles are 1-5 ATS arsenic location favorites.

Pick: Saints 24, Eagles 20

Texans (1-8) astatine Titans (8-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Titans -10, 44½

Analysis: Tennessee is inactive playing coagulated shot aft beating the Saints but not covering and getting outgained. The Texans are the worst squad successful football. But my interest is that the Titans volition endure a letdown aft a grueling agelong of games. Not a beardown sentiment with Tennessee laying treble digits.

By the numbers: Houston is 6-15 ATS connected the roadworthy vs. teams with a winning location record. … The Titans are connected a 5-1 ATS run. … The location squad is 8-2 ATS successful the series. … The Texans are connected a 4-0 nether surge connected the road. … Tennessee is riding an 11-2 implicit streak vs. teams with a losing record.

Pick: Titans 26, Texans 17

Packers (8-2) astatine Vikings (4-5)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Packers -1, 47½

Analysis: I expect the Packers to power this crippled down Aaron Rodgers, who has thrived against the Vikings, throwing for 50 touchdowns against 7 interceptions. Green Bay’s defence has been awesome, allowing less than 14 points successful 4 of the past 5 games. The Vikings person been inconsistent each season.

By the numbers: Green Bay is 6-0 ATS arsenic a favourite and 10-1 ATS aft a cover. … Minnesota is 1-7 ATS astatine home.

Pick: Packers 30, Vikings 21

Bengals (5-4) astatine Raiders (5-4)

Time: 1:05 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Bengals -1, 51

Analysis: Are the Raiders falling isolated due to the fact that of the turmoil they’ve dealt with successful the past month? I don’t deliberation so. The Bengals started the play arsenic 1 of the NFL’s astir astonishing teams, but they’ve struggled immoderate since. The Raiders were crushed by the Chiefs connected Sunday night, but this is simply a connection crippled for Las Vegas.

By the numbers: Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS arsenic a favorite. … The Raiders are 5-2 ATS arsenic underdogs. … The Bengals are connected a 14-6-1 implicit streak vs. the AFC. … The Raiders are connected an 11-0-1 implicit tally arsenic location underdogs and a 10-2 implicit uptick vs. the AFC.

Pick: Raiders 27, Bengals 23

Cardinals (8-2) astatine Seahawks (3-6)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Cardinals -1½, 47½

Analysis: The Cardinals were whipped by the Panthers successful past week’s 34-10 location loss. Arizona QB Kyler Murray astir apt volition get the commencement but is not 100 percent. Russell Wilson was unopen retired for the archetypal clip successful his vocation past week successful Seattle’s 17-0 nonaccomplishment successful Green Bay.

By the numbers: The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS aft a straight-up nonaccomplishment of much than 14 points. … Seattle is 36-15-4 ATS aft a straight-up loss. … The underdog is 9-2-1 ATS successful the series. … Arizona is 5-1 ATS successful the past six meetings successful Seattle. … The Cardinals are connected a 10-3 nether tally connected the road. … The Seahawks are connected a 6-0 nether streak arsenic an underdog.

Pick: Seahawks 20, Cardinals 18

Cowboys (7-2) astatine Chiefs (6-4)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Chiefs -2½, 56

Analysis: The Chiefs look to beryllium backmost connected way with their discourtesy and defence playing good during a three-game triumph streak. Kansas City should person nary occupation keeping the momentum going and scoring connected the Cowboys. Dallas QB Dak Prescott had a bully crippled against the Falcons, but I spot him having a somewhat hard clip astatine Arrowhead Stadium. The Cowboys volition beryllium without standout receiver Amari Cooper (COVID-19 protocol). Home-field vantage is large for the Chiefs, and Mahomes volition outplay Prescott.

By the numbers: Dallas is 5-11 ATS vs. a squad with a winning grounds but 8-1 ATS wide this season. … Kansas City is 5-15 ATS arsenic a favourite and 1-10 ATS successful its past 11 location games.

Pick: Chiefs 31, Cowboys 24

Steelers (5-3) astatine Chargers (5-4)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Chargers -5, 47½

Analysis: Both teams are coming disconnected disappointing location games, with the Steelers settling for a necktie against the Lions and the Chargers losing to the Vikings. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is expected to instrumentality aft missing past week’s crippled due to the fact that of the coronavirus.

By the numbers: The Steelers are 18-7-1 ATS arsenic roadworthy underdogs and 33-15-3 ATS arsenic underdogs overall. … The Chargers are 5-12-1 ATS arsenic location favorites. … The roadworthy squad has covered the past 4 meetings.

Pick: Chargers 23, Steelers 21

Giants (3-6) astatine Buccaneers (6-3)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Bucs -11, 49½

Analysis: Tampa Bay is coming disconnected a letdown crippled vs. Washington past week, erstwhile it scored lone 19 points and mislaid by 10. The Giants person played hard for manager Joe Judge and should beryllium successful this game. Tampa is inactive dealing with immoderate large injuries.

By the numbers: The Giants are 20-6 ATS arsenic roadworthy underdogs and 6-1 ATS successful November. … The Bucs are 7-1 ATS astatine home. … New York is 5-0-1 ATS successful the past six meetings successful Tampa Bay.

Pick: Buccaneers 23, Giants 21