NFL betting breakdown: Week 12

Titans (8-3) astatine Patriots (7-4)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Patriots -7, 43½

Analysis: Tennessee injuries are starting to heap up, with wide receiver Julio Jones already retired and present wideout A.J. Brown retired arsenic well. On defense, the Titans mislaid linebacker Bud Dupree and person different wounded concerns astatine linebacker and successful the secondary. Meanwhile, the Patriots are getting healthier each week. New England’s defence should supply plentifulness of issues for a banged-up Tennessee offense, portion the Pats’ discourtesy should get chunks of yards successful their passing game.

By the numbers: Tennessee is 26th successful lowest sack percent allowed, portion the Patriots are sixth-best successful unit rate, truthful Titans backmost Ryan Tannehill figures to beryllium nether unit each day. … New England is third-best successful the league successful generating walk plays of 20+ yards portion Tennessee is dormant past successful generating large walk plays.

Pick: Patriots 27, Titans 17

Jets (2-8) astatine Texans (2-8)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Texans -2½, 44½

Analysis: Zach Wilson gets the commencement astatine QB for the Jets for the archetypal clip since Week 7. Tyrod Taylor gets the commencement again for Houston and is 2-2 successful his 4 starts for the Texans. The Jets athletics the league’s worst walk defence portion Houston isn’t excessively acold down astatine No. 27.

By the numbers: New York is 2-11 ATS arsenic a roadworthy underdog and has allowed 24 points oregon much successful 11 of those 13 games. … Houston has scored 21 points oregon much successful 3 of Taylor’s 4 starts and 22 points oregon much successful 3 of their 4 location games.

Pick: Texans 24, Jets 21

Eagles (5-6) astatine Giants (3-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Eagles -3½, 45½

Analysis: The Giants person a caller violative coordinator successful Freddie Kitchens. Don’t expect a batch to alteration with this New York offense, but determination are apt to beryllium a fewer caller wrinkles that whitethorn assistance it this week. The Giants person been competitory astatine location this play against the mean to below-average teams, with wins implicit the Panthers and Raiders and a three-point nonaccomplishment to Atlanta. Philadelphia has won 3 of 4 games, but the wins were against winless Detroit, a Denver squad that was missing 4 violative linemen and the Saints, who are highly banged up.

By the numbers: The Giants are 6-16 ATS arsenic location underdogs but person won their past 2 games outright successful that relation implicit Carolina and the Raiders. … New York is connected a 14-7-1 nether streak arsenic a location underdog.

Pick: Giants 24, Eagles 23

Buccaneers (7-3) astatine Colts (6-5)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Buccaneers -3, 53½

Analysis: Indianapolis has won 3 consecutive and 5 of six heading into a large showdown against Tampa Bay. The Colts are yet getting steadfast and it’s starting to amusement arsenic they dominated the Bills successful past week’s 41-15 triumph successful Buffalo. But the Colts’ eighth-ranked rushing discourtesy volition look the Bucs’ top-ranked rushing defence that mightiness person Vita Vea backmost astatine chemoreceptor tackle. Vea and linebacker Devin White volition beryllium game-time decisions. Tampa Bay is tops successful the league successful lowest sack percent allowed portion the Colts are conscionable No. 30 successful unit complaint connected the QB, truthful Tom Brady should person clip to propulsion the ball.

By the numbers: The Bucs are 0-5 ATS arsenic roadworthy favorites this play and 0-3 ATS vs. winning teams. … Road favorites coming disconnected a location triumph wherever they allowed 10 points oregon little are 179-253-9 ATS. Home underdogs disconnected a roadworthy triumph vs. a roadworthy squad disconnected a location triumph are 75-40-1 ATS.

Pick: Buccaneers 27, Colts 26

Falcons (4-6) astatine Jaguars (2-8)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Falcons -2, 45½

Analysis: Atlanta has mislaid its past 2 games by 40 and 25 points. With wideout Calvin Ridley sidelined, the Falcons severely request moving back/receiver Cordarrelle Patterson to return. He’s questionable. Jacksonville ranks No. 9 successful lowest sack percent allowed, portion Atlanta is No. 31 successful unit complaint truthful Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence should person a accidental to marque immoderate plays. Jacksonville besides has a accidental to tally the shot with their No. 13 rushing discourtesy against Atlanta’s No. 26 rushing defense. If Patterson doesn’t play, that volition greatly bounds the Falcons’ discourtesy and Jacksonville volition person a large accidental for the win.

By the numbers: The Jaguars haven’t scored much than 19 points successful their past 7 games arsenic location underdogs. … Teams coming disconnected a location nonaccomplishment of 24 points oregon much (Atlanta) are connected a 62-26-2 nether streak, including 7-2 this season.

Pick: Jaguars 22, Falcons 21

Panthers (5-6) astatine Dolphins (4-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Panthers -2½, 42

Analysis: Miami is riding a three-game winning streak and different triumph present — with games against the Giants, Jets and banged-up Saints the adjacent 3 weeks — would springiness the Dolphins a accidental to inactive marque the playoffs. Miami has done it with its defense, limiting its past 3 opponents to 17 points oregon lesss. The Dolphins volition look a Panthers squad with QB Cam Newton present starring the mode and a Carolina defence that is No. 2 successful the league successful unit rate. The Panthers had their champion violative game, measured by occurrence rate, down Newton successful past week’s nonaccomplishment to Washington. Miami volition effort to confuse Newton with blitzes similar they did to Ravens QB Lamar Jackson successful a 22-10 victory.

By the numbers: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is 6-1 ATS successful his vocation astatine location successful games successful which he’s played astatine slightest 40 percent of the snaps. The lone ATS nonaccomplishment was a 30-28 setback to Atlanta this play arsenic a 1½-point underdog.

Pick: Panthers 21, Dolphins 20

Steelers (5-4) astatine Bengals (6-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bengals -3½, 44

Analysis: Pittsburgh’s defence should rebound this week if it gets backmost linebacker T.J. Watt, information Minkah Fitzpatrick and cornerback Joe Haden, who each missed past week’s shootout nonaccomplishment to the Chargers. Watt and Fitzpatrick are expected to play, portion Haden is questionable. The quality of those 3 to assistance successful sum and unreserved the passer for a Steelers defence that is No. 14 successful unit complaint should spell plentifulness of occupation for Bengals QB Joe Burrow and a Cincinnati squad that ranks No. 28 successful sack percent allowed.

By the numbers: The Bengals are 1-4 ATS arsenic location favorites nether manager Zac Taylor. … The Steelers are 6-2 ATS arsenic roadworthy underdogs.

Pick: Bengals 23, Steelers 20

Chargers (6-4) astatine Broncos (5-5)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Chargers -2½, 47

Analysis: The Broncos are coming disconnected their bye week and mightiness get Bradley Chubb back. The linebacker volition beryllium a game-day decision. Los Angeles is dormant past successful the league successful rushing defense, truthful Denver should find occurrence moving the shot and opening up play enactment down the tract with its wide receivers. The Chargers person won conscionable 1 crippled by much than six points this season, truthful a Denver teaser is successful play present arsenic well.

By the numbers: Eight of 11 Chargers roadworthy games with QB Justin Herbert person totaled 50 points oregon more, including a 61-point shootout successful Denver past season. The Broncos won, 31-30.

Pick: Broncos 27, Chargers 23

Vikings (5-5) astatine 49ers (5-5)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: 49ers -3½, 49

Analysis: Minnesota mislaid borderline rusher Danielle Hunter a fewer weeks ago. The Vikings besides volition play this crippled without borderline rusher Everson Griffen (non-football unwellness list), which means they volition beryllium missing their apical 2 sack leaders and unit complaint leaders. Along with Minnesota’s No. 30 rushing defense, the Vikings could person problems stopping San Francisco. The anticipation for Minnesota is its No. 2 offense, which allows the lowest sack percentage, vs. a 49ers defence that ranks No. 24 successful unit rate.

By the numbers: Vikings manager Mike Zimmer is 18-10-1 ATS arsenic a nondivisional roadworthy canine portion Niners manager Kyle Shanahan is 0-9 ATS arsenic a location favorite.

Pick: 49ers 25, Vikings 22

Rams (7-3) astatine Packers (8-3)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Rams -2, 47

Analysis: Green Bay is inactive without All-Pro near tackle David Bakhtiari and halfway Josh Myers and besides mislaid near defender Elgton Jenkins, who was filling successful for Bakhtiari. The Packers besides volition beryllium without cornerback Kevin King, which tests their extent successful the secondary. The Rams are acceptable to amusement disconnected their brace of caller shiny pieces successful borderline rusher Von Miller and receiver Odell Beckham Jr.

By the numbers: Under manager Sean McVay, the Rams are 3-6 consecutive up connected the roadworthy against teams that made the playoffs that season. … With Aaron Rodgers starting, Green Bay hasn’t mislaid a crippled astatine location by much than 7 points since 2017. The Packers getting much than 7 points successful a teaser is simply a bully bet.

Pick: Rams 27, Packers 26

Browns (6-5) astatine Ravens (7-3)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Ravens -3, 47

Analysis: This is simply a immense divisional matchup. Cleveland volition person a bye aft this crippled and past look the Ravens again successful their archetypal crippled pursuing their bye week. The Browns are getting steadfast with close tackle Jack Conklin and moving backmost Kareem Hunt back. That gives the Browns their two-headed monster astatine moving backmost with Hunt and Nick Chubb, who played unneurotic the archetypal 5 weeks of the season. Cleveland totaled 26 points oregon much successful 4 of its 5 games with that duo.

By the numbers: Baltimore is 3-9 ATS arsenic a location favourite of 7 points oregon little with QB Lamar Jackson starting. But the Ravens person scored 20 points oregon much successful 11 of those 12 games. … Cleveland has allowed 33 points oregon much successful 7 of its past 8 games arsenic a roadworthy underdog. The Browns person scored 29 points oregon much successful 5 of those 8 games.

Pick: Ravens 27, Browns 26

Seahawks (3-7) astatine Washington (4-6)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Pick’em, 46½

Analysis: Seattle has mislaid 5 of its past six games, with its lone triumph implicit Jacksonville. The Seahawks person scored a full of 13 points since QB Russell Wilson returned. They present look a Washington squad that has won 2 successful a enactment and is getting its discourtesy steadfast with 29- and 27-point efforts the past 2 weeks.

By the numbers: Washington ranks No. 7 successful rushing offense, portion Seattle ranks No. 27 successful rushing defense. … Seattle has the No. 31 passing defence and Washington is No. 30 successful passing defense, truthful plentifulness of points could beryllium scored successful this game.

Pick: Washington 27, Seahawks 24