NFL betting breakdown: Week 18

NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN

Lee Sterling, Paramountsports.com, @paramountsports

Packers (13-3) astatine Lions (2-13-1)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Packers -3, 44½

Analysis: With the Packers clinching home-field vantage passim the playoffs, I can’t spot them playing galore starters. Detroit backmost Tim Boyle has looked comfy the past 2 games filling successful for Jared Goff, who is questionable. Lions manager Dan Campbell said helium expects Goff to play. I springiness some Detroit quarterbacks the borderline implicit Green Bay backup QB Jordan Love.

By the numbers: The Lions are connected a 10-4 nether streak. … Detroit is connected a 6-2 screen tally and is 10-6 ATS this season.

Pick: Lions 23, Packers 17

Bears (6-10) astatine Vikings (7-9)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Vikings -5½, 44½

Analysis: There are a batch of meaningless games connected Sunday’s card. But this mightiness beryllium the lone 1 successful which I volition beryllium shocked if either manager is inactive employed aft Black Monday. When these teams met successful Chicago 5 weeks ago, the Bears were missing 14 players and a fewer coaches. I seldom backmost roadworthy underdogs with thing to play for successful the last week of the season, but Chicago is playing with passion.

By the numbers: The Bears person scored 22 points oregon much points successful 4 of their past 5 games. … Vikings QB Kirk Cousins’ 30 touchdown passes to 7 interceptions is usually indicative of a squad with a winning record.

Pick: Bears 27, Vikings 23

Colts (9-7) astatine Jaguars (2-14)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Colts -14½, 43½

Analysis: A triumph and the Colts are successful the playoffs. For the Jaguars to compete, they volition request to people immoderate points to support up with Indianapolis and NFL starring rusher Jonathan Taylor. Jacksonville has topped 17 points erstwhile since Week 6. Carson Wentz was rusty successful the Colts’ location nonaccomplishment to the Raiders aft missing the full week connected the COVID-19 list. Trevor Lawrence threw 3 much interceptions successful past week’s 50-10 nonaccomplishment astatine New England and astir apt volition beryllium playing from down each day.

By the numbers: The Jaguars’ defence has been near retired to adust each season, arsenic the discourtesy has owned the clip of possession borderline successful lone 2 of 16 games. … Since Week 7, Lawrence has thrown for 3 touchdowns and 9 interceptions with 5.5 yards per attempt.

Pick: Colts 34, Jaguars 13

Titans (11-5) astatine Texans (4-12)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Titans -10, 42½

Analysis: Tennessee beating Miami 34-3 past week and conscionable needing a triumph to clinch the No. 1 effect isn’t capable to get maine to bargain successful connected the Titans. Before that blowout, they hadn’t cracked the 20-point obstruction successful their erstwhile 5 games. Houston QB Davis Mills has improved implicit the past month, and with thing to suffer astatine home, the unit is each connected the Titans.

By the numbers: The Texans are riding a 6-1 ATS streak astatine location against Tennessee. … This is the archetypal clip since 2003 that the Titans person won 11 games oregon much successful back-to-back seasons.

Pick: Titans 27, Texans 20

Washington (6-10) astatine Giants (4-12)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Washington -7, 37

Analysis: Washington QB Taylor Heinicke lit up New York successful the archetypal game, truthful there’s nary crushed helium can’t bash it erstwhile the Giants are successful overmuch worse signifier and person topped 20 points erstwhile successful their past 7 games. Joe Judge mightiness unrecorded to manager different play successful New York, but the roster volition beryllium overhauled.

By the numbers: The archetypal gathering went mode implicit the full of 41, arsenic Washington won 30-29 successful Week 2. … But the Football Team is connected an 8-3 nether streak, and the Giants are connected an 8-2 nether run.

Pick: Washington 31, Giants 12

Steelers (8-7-1) astatine Ravens (8-8)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Ravens -3½, 40½

Analysis: Both teams cognize that they person small accidental of getting to the postseason. The Steelers person mislaid 4 successful a enactment connected the road, allowing 38½ points per crippled successful those games. The Steelers gave an “A” effort past week successful QB Ben Roethlisberger’s send-off. I uncertainty we’ll spot that aforesaid intensity. Both teams person a batch of starters out, but I expect Baltimore to avenge its earlier nonaccomplishment to Pittsburgh.

By the numbers: Baltimore is 3-1 ATS successful the 4 games Lamar Jackson has been out. … The Ravens’ five-game losing streak is the longest of the John Harbaugh era.

Pick: Ravens 24, Steelers 20

Bengals (10-6) astatine Browns (7-9)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Browns -6½, 37

Analysis: No Joe Burrow astatine backmost for the Bengals, nary problem. Brandon Allen is 1 of the amended backup quarterbacks successful the NFL. Cleveland looks similar a squad that has quit, and its coaching unit seems to beryllium getting small retired of a talented roster. Browns QB Baker Mayfield has been ruled out. Laying points astatine location with a squad that could beryllium taken isolated successful the offseason by absorption is simply a look for disaster.

By the numbers: The Browns person scored 24 points oregon less successful 7 consecutive games. … Bengals wideout Ja’Marr Chase acceptable an NFL single-game rookie grounds for receiving yards past week with 266.

Pick: Bengals 24, Browns 23

Patriots (10-6) astatine Dolphins (8-8)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Patriots -6, 40

Analysis: If you privation to stake New England, you’re precocious to the party. The Patriots opened arsenic 2½-point favorites. There is nary worth betting them astatine this inflated line. New England scored 16 points astatine location successful their archetypal gathering with the Dolphins. If the Bills spell up large aboriginal against the Jets, you besides tally the hazard of the Patriots pulling their starters early.

By the numbers: New England has intercepted 23 passes this season. … Miami’s discourtesy ranks 31st successful rushing and 25th successful full yards.

Pick: Patriots 20, Dolphins 16

Jets (4-12) astatine Bills (10-6)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Bills -16½, 40½

Analysis: The Bills person an borderline successful each large violative oregon antiaircraft category, and the lone happening that mightiness dilatory their discourtesy is simply a 60 percent accidental of snow. The biggest limb lately for the Jets has been wide receiver/kick returner Braxton Berrios, but helium astir apt wouldn’t adjacent spot the tract connected discourtesy if helium played for the Bills. Buffalo crushed the Jets 45-17 successful Week 10.

By the numbers: New York QB Zach Wilson has been sacked 25 times successful six roadworthy starts. … Buffalo hasn’t punted successful its past 2 games.

Pick: Bills 37, Jets 14

Panthers (5-11) astatine Buccaneers (12-4)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Buccaneers -8, 41½

Analysis: In their archetypal gathering 2 weeks ago, the Bucs cruised to a 32-6 triumph with 7 sacks. The Panthers person topped 21 points erstwhile successful their past 10 games.

By the numbers: The Panthers person the NFL’s second-worst dispersed grounds astatine 5-11. … Over the past 4 games, 3 Carolina quarterbacks person thrown for lone 737 yards and 2 touchdowns with 5 interceptions, six fumbles and 19 sacks.

Pick: Buccaneers 28, Panthers 9

Saints (8-8) astatine Falcons (7-9)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Saints -3½, 39½

Analysis: The Saints are astir apt favored lone due to the fact that they haven’t been eliminated from the playoffs. Their defence is stellar, but the discourtesy has surpassed 18 points erstwhile successful the past six games. In the archetypal meeting, Falcons QB Matt Ryan was 23-for-30 for 11.4 yards per effort successful a 27-25 win.

By the numbers: The Falcons are 7-2 consecutive up against teams with a .500 grounds oregon less. … The 1 changeless affirmative for Atlanta has been rookie choky extremity Kyle Pitts. He’s the 2nd choky extremity to person much than 1,000 receiving yards successful his rookie season.

Pick: Falcons 31, Saints 30

Seahawks (6-10) astatine Cardinals (11-5)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Cardinals -5½, 48

Analysis: The Cardinals tin clinch the part rubric if they triumph and the 49ers bushed the Rams. I person a feeling that QB Russell Wilson is playing his last crippled for the Seahawks. Seattle has yet recovered a crushed game, arsenic moving backmost Rashaad Penny has rushed for astatine slightest 135 yards successful 3 of the past 4 games.

By the numbers: Arizona QB Kyler Murray has thrown for lone six touchdowns successful his past six games, with 5 interceptions and 7 fumbles. … Seattle is averaging lone 22.3 points.

Pick: Cardinals 27, Seahawks 26

49ers (9-7) astatine Rams (12-4)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Rams -4½, 44½

Analysis: Rams manager Sean McVay has mislaid 5 successful a enactment to the 49ers and manager Kyle Shanahan. Jimmy Garoppolo could commencement astatine backmost for the 49ers, but adjacent if Trey Lance gets the nod, I’m OK with backing San Francisco. He threw for 249 yards and 2 touchdowns successful past week’s 23-7 triumph implicit Houston.

By the numbers: The 49ers person won 4 consecutive location games for the archetypal clip since 2013. … Niners moving backmost Elijah Mitchell is steadfast again and has 5 100-yard rushing games.

Pick: 49ers 27, Rams 24

Chargers (9-7) astatine Raiders (9-7)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line: Chargers -3, 49

Analysis: Two teams that haven’t been successful an important crippled successful a agelong time. The Chargers mightiness person a top-10 roster, arsenic acold arsenic endowment is concerned. Los Angeles manager Brandon Staley’s fourth-down gambles aboriginal successful the play were money, but they haven’t worked retired truthful good successful the past month. The Chargers person 1 glaring weakness: They can’t halt the run. They person allowed much than 175 rushing yards six times and are 29th successful the NFL successful rushing defence (136.7 ypga). The Raiders’ Josh Jacobs has rushed for 244 yards successful the past 3 games and could beryllium the difference.

By the numbers: Raiders receiver Hunter Renfrow has 99 catches and his archetypal play with 1,000 receiving yards with 1,025. … Las Vegas is 11-21 ATS aft a win.

Pick: Raiders 26, Chargers 23