NFL betting breakdown: Week 4

BETTING BREAKDOWN

Mark Franco, FrancoSports.com

Football Team (1-2) astatine Falcons (1-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Football Team -1½, 47½

Analysis: Washington has been a large disappointment with its defence being downright leaky, yielding 432 yards per game, which ranks 31st successful the NFL. The Falcons person been underachievers connected discourtesy with backmost Matt Ryan and a anemic moving crippled that averages 82.7 yards. This is simply a pugnacious 1 to call, but I thin to the under.

By the numbers: Washington is 4-11 ATS connected the roadworthy against an hostile that won the erstwhile week. … The Falcons are 19-31 ATS successful their past 50 games started by Ryan. … The nether is 10-1 successful the Football Team’s past 11 games successful October and 6-1 successful Atlanta’s past 7 games successful October.

Pick: Football Team 19, Falcons 17

Lions (0-3) astatine Bears (1-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bears -3, 42

Analysis: Chicago mustered 47 full yards against Cleveland successful its worst violative outing successful 40 years. But the Bears’ struggles are thing caller for this Matt Nagy offense, which has been truthful atrocious I foretell helium volition beryllium the archetypal manager to get fired this season. The Lions person played hard for first-year manager Dan Campbell, but the defence inactive gives up excessively galore points astatine 31.7 per game.

By the numbers: Chicago is 10-5 ATS astatine location aft losing by 20 points oregon much the erstwhile week but 1-6 ATS vs. the NFC. … The Lions are 3-6-1 ATS vs. the Bears. … Chicago is connected a 12-3 nether streak against teams with a winning percent of 40 percent oregon less.

Pick: Bears 21, Lions 20

Titans (2-1) astatine Jets (0-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Titans -6, 44½

Analysis: After Tennessee was crushed by Arizona successful the play opener, it’s playing similar I expected it would with a comeback triumph astatine Seattle and bully triumph and screen against the Colts. The Jets’ discourtesy is simply a enactment successful advancement with a league-worst 6.7 points per game. The Titans and moving backmost Derrick Henry should beryllium capable to tally each implicit the Jets with backmost Ryan Tannehill being palmy passing retired of the pouch adjacent without his apical wideouts successful injured A.J. Brown and Julio Jones.

By the numbers: The Titans are 15-10 ATS arsenic a favourite of astatine slightest 7 points and 9-6 ATS connected the roadworthy with Tannehill arsenic the starting quarterback. … Tennessee is connected an 8-2 implicit tally connected the roadworthy with Tannehill arsenic the starter. … The favourite is 5-1 ATS successful the past six meetings.

Pick: Titans 35, Jets 16

Browns (2-1) astatine Vikings (1-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Browns -1½, 51½

Analysis: Minnesota has a losing record, but was adjacent to being undefeated aft a 27-24 overtime nonaccomplishment astatine Cincinnati successful Week 1 and a 34-33 nonaccomplishment astatine Arizona successful Week 2. Last week, the Vikings played a implicit crippled successful a 30-17 location triumph implicit Seattle. Kirk Cousins is disconnected to a large start, averaging much than 300 yards per crippled with 8 touchdowns and nary turnovers. The Browns defence has been solid, dominating the Bears past week with 9 sacks portion allowing lone 47 yards.

By the numbers: Cleveland is 3-12 ATS vs. the NFC North and 2-8 ATS arsenic a roadworthy favorite. … Minnesota is 6-2 ATS arsenic an underdog and 36-22-1 ATS astatine location nether manager Mike Zimmer. … The Vikings are connected a 10-2 implicit tally astatine home.

Pick: Vikings 31, Browns 28

Colts (0-3) astatine Dolphins (1-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Dolphins -2½, 42½

Analysis: The Dolphins played good aft their 35-0 nonaccomplishment to the Bills by astir upsetting the Raiders successful overtime past week. Miami has a knack for taking the shot away, and that spells occupation for banged-up Indianapolis QB Carson Wentz, who has been a disappointment.

By the numbers: The Colts are 1-4 ATS vs. the AFC. … The Dolphins are 8-0 ATS astatine location vs. a squad with a losing roadworthy grounds and are 12-2 ATS aft a loss.

Pick: Dolphins 23, Colts 19

Panthers (3-0) astatine Cowboys (2-1)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Cowboys -4, 51½

Analysis: The Panthers person had a fewer other days to hole aft past week’s triumph and screen implicit Houston. The Cowboys are connected a abbreviated week aft routing the Eagles connected Monday. The question is whether to instrumentality Dallas’ high-flying discourtesy oregon Carolina’s top-ranked defense, which allows 191 yards per game. This enactment is excessively inflated from the blowout connected “Monday Night Football.”

By the numbers: Carolina is riding a 6-0 screen streak arsenic a roadworthy underdog and 8-0 ATS connected the roadworthy overall. … Dallas is 4-11 ATS vs. a squad with a winning grounds and 2-7 ATS arsenic a favorite. … The Panthers are connected a 6-0 nether run, and the Cowboys are connected a 4-1 nether tally arsenic favorites.

Pick: Panthers 31, Cowboys 27

Giants (0-3) astatine Saints (2-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Saints -7, 42

Analysis: The Giants are not playing arsenic good connected discourtesy arsenic expected. When you can’t people much than 14 points against the Falcons, you person problems. Running backmost Saquon Barkley is obscurity adjacent the level helium was astatine arsenic a rookie and isn’t adjacent to 100 percent. The Saints’ discourtesy is inactive trying to find itself and is ranked 31st successful the league. I spot a slower-paced crippled that mightiness support the Giants successful it until the 4th quarter.

By the numbers: New York is 8-2 ATS arsenic a roadworthy underdog. … New Orleans is 12-3 ATS successful its past 15 location games successful October. … The Giants are riding a 9-1 nether streak.

Pick: Saints 23, Giants 17

Chiefs (1-2) astatine Eagles (1-2)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Chiefs -6½, 54½

Analysis: QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ discourtesy volition get backmost connected track. I expect the Eagles, with their antiaircraft problems, to person a pugnacious clip slowing Kansas City. Philadelphia besides is connected a abbreviated week aft its 20-point nonaccomplishment Monday astatine Dallas.

By the numbers: The Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS arsenic a favorite. … The Eagles are 2-4-1 ATS astatine location aft playing connected “Monday Night Football.” … Kansas City is connected an 11-4-1 implicit streak successful Week 4.

Pick: Chiefs 37, Eagles 20

Texans (1-2) astatine Bills (2-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bills -17, 47

Analysis: Josh Allen is coming disconnected a sensational show against Washington successful which helium completed 32 of 43 passes for 358 yards and 4 touchdowns successful a 43-21 victory. The Bills tin astir people astatine volition against anemic teams specified arsenic Houston. Texans rookie QB Davis Mills volition beryllium making his archetypal NFL roadworthy start.

By the numbers: Houston is connected a 9-16 dispersed slide. … Buffalo is 8-2 ATS arsenic a favourite and 11-4 ATS successful Allen’s past 15 starts. … The Bills are connected an 8-2 implicit tally arsenic favorites of a touchdown oregon more.

Pick: Bills 33, Texans 16

Cardinals (3-0) astatine Rams (3-0)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Rams -4, 54½

Analysis: This mightiness beryllium the astir entertaining crippled of the week. The Cardinals are excelling connected discourtesy down QB Kyler Murray, winning and covering their archetypal 3 games. The Rams won a large crippled implicit the Buccaneers past week and are playing similar the NFC favorites they are. This should beryllium a high-scoring game, with Los Angeles getting the champion of the Arizona defense.

By the numbers: The Cardinals are 4-11 ATS vs. a squad with a winning record. … Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS vs. the NFC West.

Pick: Rams 31, Cardinals 24

Seahawks (1-2) astatine 49ers (2-1)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: 49ers -2½, 52

Analysis: The Seahawks’ defence is the worst successful the NFL, giving up 440 yards per game. Things volition not get immoderate easier against the 49ers. I spot a adjacent game, but the 49ers volition people capable points, portion Seattle QB Russell Wilson plays good but not bully enough.

By the numbers: Seattle is 1-7 ATS connected the roadworthy and 1-6 ATS vs. the NFC. … The Niners are 4-1 ATS vs. the NFC West. … The Seahawks are connected a 9-3 nether run.

Pick: 49ers 23, Seahawks 20

Ravens (2-1) astatine Broncos (3-0)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Pick, 44½

Analysis: Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson missed signifier Wednesday and Thursday with a backmost wounded but volition play. He volition person issues vs. the Broncos’ defense, arsenic the Ravens won’t beryllium capable to tally the ball. Look for Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater and Co. to bash capable connected offense.

By the numbers: The Broncos are 10-4 ATS vs. the AFC. … The Ravens are 8-2 ATS connected the roadworthy against a squad with a winning record. … All 3 Denver games person stayed nether the total.

Pick: Broncos 22, Ravens 17

Steelers (1-2) astatine Packers (2-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Packers -6, 45½

Analysis: The Packers person played overmuch amended connected some sides of the shot since their Week 1 debacle against the Saints. Green Bay’s discourtesy has shown it’s inactive a origin down QB Aaron Rogers and his weapons. The Steelers are a messiness connected offense, averaging 16.7 points, and QB Ben Roethlisberger appears to beryllium successful the twilight of his career. Pittsburgh’s defence volition person a hard clip containing the Packers.

By the numbers: The Steelers are connected a 3-7 ATS slide. … Green Bay is 10-5 ATS vs. the AFC. … Pittsburgh is connected a 12-5 nether streak aft a straight-up loss.

Pick: Packers 34, Steelers 17

Buccaneers (2-1) astatine Patriots (1-2)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Bucs -7, 49½

Analysis: After each the media hype surrounding the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick soap opera, it comes down to playing the game. It’s a fixed that the Bucs are caput and shoulders supra the Patriots, but this 1 mightiness travel down to New England rookie QB Mac Jones vs. a Tampa Bay defence that’s a small banged up.

By the numbers: Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS aft an ATS loss. … The Patriots are 4-9-1 ATS vs. a squad with a winning record. … The Bucs are riding a 27-10 implicit streak connected the road.

Pick: Bucs 30, Patriots 19

Raiders (3-0) astatine Chargers (2-1)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Chargers -3, 51½

Analysis: The Raiders person the No. 1 discourtesy successful the league, averaging 471 yards, and QB Derek Carr is playing astatine an MVP level. Chargers QB Justin Herbert was awesome against the Chiefs successful past week’s win, and that should continue, adjacent though the Raiders’ defence has been solid.

By the numbers: The Raiders are 6-1 ATS connected “Monday Night Football.” … The Raiders are riding an 11-3-1 implicit streak against the AFC and a 14-4-1 implicit tally overall.

Pick: Raiders 30, Chargers 27