NFL betting breakdown: Week 6

BETTING BREAKDOWN

Scott Kellen, SixthSenseSports.com, @SixthSenseNFL

Dolphins (1-4) astatine Jaguars (0-5), London

Time: 6:30 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Dolphins -3, 47

Analysis: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa volition commencement for Miami, but the Dolphins are missing cornerback Xavien Howard and wide receivers DeVante Parker and Will Fuller. The Jaguars volition beryllium without starting halfway Brandon Linder and linebacker Myles Jack. Jacksonville is successful the apical 10 successful the NFL successful fewest sacks allowed and is 11th-best successful applying unit connected the quarterback. Miami is 25th successful the NFL successful fewest sacks allowed and is successful the bottommost 10 successful applying unit connected the quarterback. Jaguars rookie QB Trevor Lawrence should person clip to propulsion the ball.

By the numbers: Jacksonville qualifies arsenic a play based connected a strategy that winless teams are 143-91-8 ATS (61.1 percent) arsenic underdogs from Week 6 connected against teams with a triumph percent of .800 oregon less.

Pick: Jaguars 23, Dolphins 22

Texans (1-4) astatine Colts (1-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Colts -10, 43½

Analysis: Houston and Indianapolis are the bottommost 2 teams successful the league successful applying unit connected the quarterback. They besides fertile successful the bottommost 10 successful allowing walk plays of 20 yards oregon more. The Colts bash look to beryllium playing amended the past fewer games with an casual triumph astatine Miami and an overtime nonaccomplishment astatine Baltimore connected Monday night. But this is simply a large fig for a beneath mean squad to beryllium laying.

By the numbers: Home teams with a triumph percent of .600 oregon little favored by much than six points are not profitable plays erstwhile playing a beneath .500 squad coming disconnected a loss. The Texans suffice arsenic a play based connected that premise, which is 209-115-7 ATS (64.5 percent).

Pick: Colts 25, Texans 17

Packers (4-1) astatine Bears (3-2)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Packers -6, 44

Analysis: Chicago is past successful the league successful generating walk plays of 20 yards oregon more, and Green Bay is fifth-best. The Bears fertile 31st successful sacks allowed (18) and are fifth-worst successful applying unit connected the quarterback. Green Bay should deed much large plays portion putting unit connected Chicago rookie QB Justin Fields, and Packers QB Aaron Rodgers should person clip to throw.

By the numbers: Chicago has won 8 of its past 10 games against losing teams, but is 3-8 against winning teams, including 20-point losses to the Rams and Browns this season.

Pick: Packers 26, Bears 20

Chiefs (2-3) astatine Washington (2-3)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Chiefs -6½, 54

Analysis: The Kansas City discourtesy continues to thrive, but its defence is astir arsenic atrocious arsenic the discourtesy is good. The Chiefs pb the league successful walk occurrence rate, portion Washington is ninth-worst successful walk occurrence complaint allowed. The Football Team is fourth-best successful tally occurrence rate, and Kansas City is second-worst successful tally occurrence complaint allowed. Washington should beryllium capable to tally the ball, and the Chiefs should beryllium capable to throw. Passing usually wins retired successful the NFL, truthful vantage Chiefs.

By the numbers: Kansas City has allowed 29 points oregon much successful each game. … Washington has allowed 29 points oregon much successful each of its past 4 games.

Pick: Chiefs 30, Football Team 26

Vikings (2-3) astatine Panthers (3-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Vikings -2½, 46

Analysis: Minnesota and Carolina are the NFL’s apical 2 teams successful unit complaint connected defense. Both teams are successful the apical 10 successful walk occurrence complaint allowed, with Carolina No. 1. The Vikings are hitting the roadworthy aft 3 consecutive location games. In Minnesota’s archetypal 2 roadworthy games, it allowed 27 and 34 points.

By the numbers: The Panthers suffice arsenic a play based connected the strategy that location underdogs of 3 points oregon little coming disconnected a nonaccomplishment arsenic a favourite of much than 2 points are 80-37-9 ATS (68.3 percentage) if their triumph percent is .600 oregon less.

Pick: Panthers 21, Vikings 20

Chargers (4-1) astatine Ravens (4-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Ravens -2½, 51

Analysis: Baltimore averages 4.9 yards per rush, and Los Angeles allows 5.6 yards per rush. Baltimore is 10th-worst successful allowing unit connected the quarterback, and the Chargers are 10th-best successful applying unit connected the QB. The Ravens should beryllium capable to tally the ball, and LA should beryllium capable to throw. The Chargers are the seventh-best successful walk occurrence rate, and the Ravens are successful the mediate of the battalion (16th) astatine walk occurrence complaint allowed.

By the numbers: With Justin Herbert astatine quarterback, 7 of the Chargers’ past 9 roadworthy games person totaled 50 points oregon more.

Pick: Ravens 28, Chargers 25

Bengals (3-2) astatine Lions (0-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bengals -3½, 47

Analysis: Cincinnati is the eighth-best squad successful the league successful producing walk plays of 20 yards oregon more, and the Lions are the worst successful allowing walk plays of 20 yards oregon more. Detroit has scored 17 points oregon less successful 4 consecutive games.

By the numbers: The Lions suffice arsenic a play based connected a strategy that winless teams are 143-91-8 ATS (61.1 percent) arsenic underdogs from Week 6 connected against teams with a triumph percent of .800 oregon less. … Detroit has mislaid 14 consecutive games arsenic a location underdog.

Pick: Bengals 24, Lions 20

Rams (4-1) astatine Giants (1-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Rams -8, 48½

Analysis: The Rams pb the league successful fewest sacks allowed (four), and the Giants are third-worst successful generating unit connected the quarterback. Both teams are supra mean throwing the shot but beneath mean defending the pass.

By the numbers: New York is mired successful a 7-18 ATS descent arsenic a location underdog. … Under manager Sean McVay, Los Angeles has scored 30 points oregon much successful 8 of its 9 games arsenic a roadworthy favourite of six points oregon more. The Rams are 7-2 ATS successful those games.

Pick: Rams 31, Giants 23

Cardinals (5-0) astatine Browns (3-2)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Browns -3½, 48½

Analysis: Cleveland averages 5.4 yards per rush, and Arizona allows 5.4 yards per rush. Cardinals manager Kliff Kingsbury volition miss this crippled aft investigating affirmative for COVID-19, on with antiaircraft tackle Zach Allen and linebacker Chandler Jones.

By the numbers: With Kyler Murray astatine quarterback, Arizona is 9-3-2 ATS arsenic a roadworthy underdog.

Pick: Browns 26, Cardinals 23

Raiders (3-2) astatine Broncos (3-2)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Broncos -4, 44

Analysis: How volition the Raiders respond successful their archetypal crippled without manager Jon Gruden since 2017? Both teams are beneath mean connected offense, comparative to the opponents they person played, and supra mean connected defense.

By the numbers: The last people has totaled 44 points oregon less successful 8 of Denver’s past 9 games arsenic a location favorite. … The last people has totaled 43 points oregon less successful 5 of the Raiders’ past 7 games arsenic roadworthy underdogs.

Pick: Broncos 24, Raiders 17

Cowboys (4-1) astatine Patriots (2-3)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Cowboys -3, 50½

Analysis: Dallas ranks successful the apical 10 successful the NFL successful generating walk plays of 20 yards oregon more. New England is 11th-worst successful allowing walk plays of 20 yards oregon more. The Cowboys are connected the roadworthy for the archetypal clip since Week 2.

By the numbers: The Patriots suffice arsenic a play based connected the strategy that roadworthy favorites of six points oregon little are 42-76-3 ATS (35.6 percent) if, similar the Cowboys, they‘re coming disconnected a location triumph of 20 points oregon more.

Pick: Cowboys 28, Patriots 22

Seahawks (2-3) astatine Steelers (2-3)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Steelers -5, 43

Analysis: Geno Smith volition instrumentality implicit astatine backmost for Seattle for the injured Russell Wilson. Smith is astir a 7-point drop-off to the constituent dispersed for the Seahawks. Seattle allows the fifth-highest percent of sacks, and Pittsburgh is sixth-best successful putting unit connected the quarterback.

By the numbers: The Seahawks are riding an 8-3-1 screen streak arsenic roadworthy underdogs. But Seattle has allowed 24 points oregon much successful 10 of those 12 games, and Wilson won’t beryllium determination to lucifer the points the defence is apt to allow.

Pick: Steelers 24, Seahawks 17

Bills (4-1) astatine Titans (3-2)

Time: 5:15 p.m., ESPN

Line/total: Bills -5½, 53½

Analysis: The Titans whipped Buffalo 42-16 astatine Tennessee past season. But some teams gained 5.4 yards per play, and the Bills were minus-three successful turnover margin. All 3 of Buffalo’s turnovers happened heavy successful its ain territory, and the Titans converted each 3 miscues into touchdowns. Tennessee wide receiver Julio Jones volition instrumentality from injury. The Titans are second-worst successful the league successful allowing sacks, and Buffalo is seventh-best successful putting unit connected the quarterback. Tennessee is the NFL’s fourth-worst squad successful producing walk plays of 20 yards oregon more, and Buffalo is the champion successful allowing the fewest walk plays of 20 yards oregon more.

By the numbers: With Josh Allen astatine quarterback, the Bills person won 8 of 9 games arsenic roadworthy favorites, with the nonaccomplishment astatine Tennessee past season. Buffalo went 6-3 ATS successful those games. The Bills scored 28 points oregon much successful 7 of those games portion allowing 23 points oregon much lone 3 times.

Pick: Bills 30, Titans 20