NFL betting breakdown: Week 7

BETTING BREAKDOWN

Dana Lane, @DanaLaneSports, PickDawgz.com

Bengals (4-2) astatine Ravens (5-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Ravens -6, 46

Analysis: Cincinnati volition person its biggest antiaircraft trial to day astatine Baltimore successful its archetypal validation game. If the Bengals bushed the Ravens, they volition beryllium 5-2 with a signature win. If they lose, questions volition originate of conscionable however bully Cincinnati is. Our summons volition beryllium won oregon mislaid astatine the enactment of scrimmage where, contempt a rash of injuries, the Ravens proceed to tally the shot well.

By the numbers: Cincinnati is connected an 8-4 ATS surge erstwhile getting 4½ points oregon more. … The Bengals are 5-2 ATS successful the past 5 meetings successful Baltimore. … Cincinnati is riding a 15-5-2 nether streak connected the road.

Pick: Ravens 24, Bengals 20

Panthers (3-3) astatine Giants (1-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Panthers -3, 42½

Analysis: The Panthers are a premier illustration of an overreaction to a 3-0 start. Current signifier has seen Carolina suffer 3 consecutive games with fewer paths to amended results. Running backmost Christian McCaffrey is inactive connected injured reserve, and backmost Sam Darnold has turned into a turnover machine. I’m not backing a squad that is caller disconnected allowing astir 600 yards to Minnesota.

By the numbers: The Panthers are 1-4 ATS successful the past 5 meetings, with the underdog winning the past four. … Carolina is connected a 7-17 ATS streak against teams with a losing record. … The implicit is 39-17-1 erstwhile the Panthers play connected FieldTurf.

Pick: Giants 26, Panthers 23

Football Team (2-4) astatine Packers (5-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Packers -8, 47½

Analysis: Uncertainty astatine the backmost presumption continues to beryllium a conundrum for Washington. But with a “Thursday Night Football” showdown with the Cardinals up adjacent for Green Bay, it’s hard to judge that we volition spot the full Packers repertoire connected display. There are inactive immoderate questions astir Green Bay’s big-play menace with Aaron Rodgers’ aerial yards differential astatine -3. That’s the worst differential among qualified quarterbacks, according to Next Gen Stats.

By the numbers: Washington is 9-4 ATS aft a double-digit location loss, and Green Bay is connected a 2-5 dispersed skid erstwhile playing teams with a losing roadworthy record. Translation: When it seems excessively bully to beryllium true, it usually is. … The nether is 8-3 aft a Washington loss.

Pick: Packers 24, Football Team 20

Chiefs (3-3) astatine Titans (4-2)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Chiefs -4, 57½

Analysis: In the past, this mightiness person been a spot successful which I would stake against the Titans, who are caller disconnected an affectional triumph implicit the Bills and connected a abbreviated week. But I tin odor this Tennessee moving crippled hitting a seasonlong crescendo with moving backmost Derrick Henry. The Titans tin power the shot agelong capable to usage their ain high-powered discourtesy to outlast the Chiefs.

By the numbers: Kansas City is 4-12 ATS successful its past 16 games arsenic a favourite and 4-13 ATS successful its past 17 outings overall. … The Chiefs person failed to screen 4 of the past 5 meetings. … This is typically the clip of twelvemonth erstwhile Tennessee heats up, covering 5 of its past 8 October games (5-2-1 ATS).

Pick: Titans 28, Chiefs 24

Falcons (2-3) astatine Dolphins (1-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Falcons -2½, 47½

Analysis: What a horrible gag the NFL is playing connected the Dolphins. The NFL paraded the Dolphins and Jaguars retired past week successful London, past asked Miami to travel backmost home, without a bye, to look a Falcons squad that’s caller disconnected its bye week. I would reason that it was a treble bye for Atlanta erstwhile you instrumentality its location triumph implicit the lowly Jets into account. The Falcons person each vantage to present a decisive triumph and cover.

By the numbers: Atlanta is 9-3 ATS against teams with a losing grounds and 4-1 ATS against teams with a losing location record. In different words, the Falcons bushed the atrocious teams portion failing to screen against the amended teams. … Miami is connected a 1-4 dispersed skid.

Pick: Falcons 23, Dolphins 17

Jets (1-4) astatine Patriots (2-4)

Time: 10 a.m., CBS

Line/total: Patriots -7, 42½

Analysis: This looks similar a classical letdown spot for the Patriots aft they dropped a season-defining crippled against the Cowboys past week. With a travel to the Los Angeles Chargers connected Halloween adjacent up for New England, it’s hard to judge that the Patriots volition enactment distant a afloat 60-minute effort against a squad they already person handled with easiness this season.

By the numbers: New England is 3-7 ATS successful its past 10 games and 2-8 ATS arsenic a favorite.

Pick: Patriots 26, Jets 24

Lions (0-6) astatine Rams (5-1)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Rams -16, 50½

Analysis: If you’re going to stake connected the Lions, hold until the past imaginable infinitesimal to spot your wager. That’s due to the fact that the betting nationalist volition proceed to backmost the Rams and thrust this fig up. Almost 90 percent of the wealth wagered connected the dispersed has been connected Los Angeles. I can’t disagree with the evident logic down that thinking. But determination has to beryllium a constituent successful which the enactment successful the soil is drawn. For me, it’s erstwhile you get implicit the two-touchdown mark.

By the numbers: Detroit is 13-6 ATS aft a double-digit nonaccomplishment astatine home. … The Rams are connected an 0-5 dispersed descent the week aft a triumph of 14 points oregon more. … LA is 1-4 ATS against teams with a losing record.

Pick: Rams 24, Lions 21

Eagles (2-4) astatine Raiders (4-2)

Time: 1:05 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Raiders -3, 48½

Analysis: The Eagles’ discourtesy has been dealing with injuries and idiosyncratic matters for astir of the season. But Philadelphia expects tackle Lane Johnson and choky extremity Dallas Goedert to instrumentality this week, giving QB Jalen Hurts different violative limb and amended protection. Hurts has been sacked astatine slightest doubly successful each crippled since the opener. Until I tin get much than 79 yards a crippled connected the crushed from the Raiders, I can’t consistently enactment my wealth down them.

By the numbers: The Raiders haven’t been a squad I’ve wanted to laic points with for 4 seasons, and here’s why: In their past 63 games arsenic favorites, they’re 20-42-1 ATS (32 percent).

Pick: Eagles 26, Raiders 24

Bears (3-3) astatine Buccaneers (5-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Buccaneers -11½, 47

Analysis: This matchup looks excessively easy, which makes maine tally the different way. Logic volition archer you that the Buccaneers are starting to vigor up with their defence rounding into form. Now Tampa Bay faces a Chicago squad that has had occupation scoring, making this an casual play for most. But support successful caput that arsenic bully arsenic the Bucs person looked since their lone nonaccomplishment to the Rams 3 weeks ago, they are 2-4 ATS. And the Bears person to consciousness bully astir however their defence played successful past week’s 24-14 nonaccomplishment to the Packers. This is going to beryllium a grind for Tampa.

By the numbers: When 2 teams that made the playoffs the erstwhile twelvemonth conscionable and the dispersed is treble digits, the underdog is 31-59 consecutive up. But the instrumentality connected concern connected a $100 money-line wager connected the underdog is much than $7,500. This inclination is adjacent stronger the past 5 years, with underdogs going 8-15 SU but winning much than $2,400.

Pick: Buccaneers 23, Bears 20

Texans (1-5) astatine Cardinals (6-0)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Cardinals -17½, 47½

Analysis: It’s hard to marque a lawsuit for the Texans due to the fact that the Houston enactment is retired of power with excessively galore factions going successful antithetic directions. So it’s amended to warrant a Texans wager with elemental math. When teams are getting 13½ to 17½ points, they’re 32-21 ATS (60.3 percent). When those underdogs are connected the road, the numbers are adjacent amended astatine 27-14 ATS (66 percent). That’s each the justification I tin muster.

By the numbers: Arizona is connected an 8-20 ATS descent arsenic a location favorite, going 2-5 ATS successful its past 7 games successful that role. … The Texans are 5-1 ATS the week aft allowing 150 yards rushing oregon more. … Road teams coming disconnected a roadworthy nonaccomplishment are 8-0 ATS this play and 13-1 ATS dating to past season.

Pick: Cardinals 30, Texans 17

Colts (2-4) astatine 49ers (2-3)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: 49ers -4, 43

Analysis: Jimmy Garoppolo gets the Niners’ violative reins again aft rookie QB Trey Lance suffered a sprained knee. San Francisco’s 3 losses person been by a combined 16 points, which means with less turnovers it would beryllium person to the Cardinals than the Seahawks successful the AFC West standings. A motivated Garoppolo gets the occupation done.

By the numbers: This is the clip of the twelvemonth erstwhile we commencement to get a consciousness for teams and deliberation we cognize who they are, particularly against the number. The Colts are 4-2 ATS and the Niners 1-4 ATS. However, teams that person covered little than 30 percent of their games are 31-17 ATS vs. teams that person covered 50 percent oregon more. In the past 15 years, this inclination has had lone 1 losing season.

Pick: 49ers 27, Colts 21

Saints (3-2) astatine Seahawks (2-4)

Time: 5:15 p.m., ESPN

Line/total: Saints -4½, 42½

Analysis: Inconsistent play with immoderate large winners arsenic underdogs is wherefore the Saints’ screen borderline is simply a spot fraudulent. New Orleans is 1-2 ATS arsenic a favourite this season, but that hasn’t stopped the nationalist from jumping connected the Saints successful this one. I recognize the thought process, but I besides judge that players and teams marque the biggest leap betwixt Week 1 and Week 2, which it fundamentally is for Seattle QB Geno Smith. He volition springiness the Seahawks conscionable capable discourtesy to complement an inspired antiaircraft effort.

By the numbers: The Saints person a terrific screen borderline this play of +30 points. But this is the clip of twelvemonth successful which I commencement to slice teams that I deliberation person a fake screen margin, particularly connected the roadworthy successful a league game.

Pick: Seahawks 21, Saints 20