NFL betting breakdown: Week 9

BETTING BREAKDOWN

Doug Fitz, @fitz_doug, Systemplays.com

Texans (1-7) astatine Dolphins (1-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Dolphins -5½, 46½

Analysis: This is an disfigured matchup of 1-7 teams that volition astir apt beryllium the lowest-bet crippled of the week. The Texans person mislaid 7 consecutive since a season-opening triumph implicit the Jaguars. The Dolphins person mislaid 7 consecutive since a season-opening triumph implicit the Patriots. I don’t deliberation it matters if Houston starts seasoned Tyrod Taylor oregon rookie Davis Mills astatine quarterback. I’ll urge taking the nether successful this 1 alternatively than being forced to instrumentality a side.

By the numbers: The Dolphins and Texans each mean little than 5 yards per play connected offense. … Houston is connected an 8-2 nether tally connected the roadworthy erstwhile connected a losing streak of 4 games oregon more.

Pick: Dolphins 21, Texans 17

Broncos (4-4) astatine Cowboys (6-1)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Cowboys -9½, 49½

Analysis: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is simply a spell aft being held retired past week with a calf injury. Denver manager Vic Fangio shows clip and clip again that he’s clueless with his in-game play calling and timepiece management. Dallas should beryllium capable to sanction the people but the fig is excessively precocious for maine to get involved.

By the numbers: Denver is 7-0 ATS playing an opponent, similar Dallas, that’s coming disconnected a Sunday nighttime game. … The Cowboys are 1-9 ATS aft a crippled successful which they had a turnover borderline of -2 oregon worse.

Pick: Cowboys 31, Broncos 24

Vikings (3-4) astatine Ravens (5-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Ravens -6, 50

Analysis: The Ravens are coming disconnected their bye week, which gave them clip to retrieve from their 41-17 blowout nonaccomplishment astatine location to the Bengals 2 weeks ago. This is simply a positive for Baltimore facing the Vikings, who are coming disconnected a disappointing location nonaccomplishment to Dallas successful a crippled wherever they had plentifulness of chances to win. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson should person a tract time against the anemic Minnesota defense.

By the numbers: Baltimore’s rushing onslaught ranks 3rd successful the league with an mean of 149.4 yards per game. … The Vikings’ rushing defence ranks 27th successful the NFL, allowing 4.6 yards per carry.

Pick: Ravens 35, Vikings 17

Patriots (4-4) astatine Panthers (4-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Patriots -3½, 41

Analysis: This is simply a precise pugnacious crippled to call. The Carolina backmost concern is up successful the air, with Sam Darnold questionable with a concussion and enarthrosis injury. If Darnold doesn’t play, the Panthers volition commencement P.J. Walker, who completed 3 of 14 passes for 33 yards successful a 25-3 nonaccomplishment to the Giants successful Week 7. The Patriots person won 2 games successful a enactment but I’m not definite they’re justified successful being a roadworthy favorite. I’ll walk connected this one.

By the numbers: Carolina is 4-0-3 ATS successful its past 7 games vs. AFC East teams. … New England is connected a 12-3 nether streak successful a revenge spot.

Pick: Panthers 21, Patriots 20

Bills (5-2) astatine Jaguars (1-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bills -14½, 48½

Analysis: There is perfectly thing affirmative I tin accidental astir the Jaguars. They are, without question, a precise atrocious and noncompetitive team. Buffalo is 1 of the champion teams successful the league. But laying 2 touchdowns connected the roadworthy is thing I volition ne'er do, based connected rule supra thing else. The Bills should beryllium capable to sanction the score. But Buffalo mightiness let a precocious backdoor screen due to the fact that it won’t attraction arsenic it’ll astir apt beryllium cruising adjacent the end.

By the numbers: The Jaguars let an mean of 278.1 passing yards per crippled and 8.6 passing yards per attempt. … The Bills mean 276.3 passing ypg and 7.1 passing ypa.

Pick: Bills 38, Jaguars 10

Browns (4-4) astatine Bengals (5-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bengals -2½, 47

Analysis: Another absorbing matchup but a pugnacious crippled to handicap. Both teams are coming disconnected losses successful games they were expected to win. Especially the Bengals, who suffered the biggest upset of the play successful losing to the lowly Jets. I’ll springiness a anemic endorsement to Cincinnati, which should beryllium much focused aft its embarrassing loss. But the nether looks similar a overmuch safer alternative.

By the numbers: The Browns and Bengals are each 4-4 ATS. … Over the past 10 years, Cleveland is 10-22-1 ATS successful November. … The Browns were held to 306 yards of discourtesy successful past week’s 15-10 nonaccomplishment to the Steelers.

Pick: Bengals 20, Browns 17

Raiders (5-2) astatine Giants (2-6)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Raiders -3, 46½

Analysis: The tragic fatal car crash involving erstwhile Raiders wide receiver Henry Ruggs could beryllium a immense distraction. But galore thought Jon Gruden’s abrupt resignation arsenic Raiders manager would be, too, and Las Vegas proved that was not the lawsuit successful winning and covering its past 2 games. Tough to say. There are excessively galore question marks, truthful I’ll pass.

By the numbers: The Raiders are 2-8 ATS vs. opponents, similar the Giants, who are playing their last crippled earlier their bye week. … New York is connected a 6-0-1 nether streak astatine home.

Pick: Raiders 27, Giants 21

Falcons (3-4) astatine Saints (5-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Saints -6, 41½

Analysis: All the statistic constituent to an casual Saints win. But this is simply a divisional rivalry and New Orleans’ backmost presumption is successful flux with Trevor Siemian replacing injured Jameis Winston astatine starter implicit Taysom Hill. So I’ll drawback the points with Atlanta.

By the numbers: The Falcons are 4-11 ATS successful their past 15 games vs. NFC opponents. … The Saints are 11-4 ATS successful their past 15 games against defenses that output much than 6.75 yards per walk attempt.

Pick: Saints 28, Falcons 24

Chargers (4-3) astatine Eagles (3-5)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Chargers -1½, 49½

Analysis: The Chargers person surely cooled disconnected aft their 4-1 start, losing their past 2 games successful blowout manner astatine Baltimore followed by a location nonaccomplishment to the Patriots. The Eagles ever look to beryllium competitory and are coming disconnected a 44-6 triumph implicit the Lions. I’ll instrumentality Philadelphia successful a adjacent contention contempt situational edges favoring Los Angeles.

By the numbers: The Chargers are 8-2 ATS successful their past 10 games vs. NFC East teams. … The Eagles are connected a 20-5 nether tally astatine location aft a consecutive up league win.

Pick: Eagles 25, Chargers 23

Packers (7-1) astatine Chiefs (4-4)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Chiefs -7, 48

Analysis: The evident instrumentality is that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is not playing due to the fact that of a affirmative COVID test. But this enactment has been overadjusted. I spot it clip and clip again. The nationalist and the oddsmakers ever inflate the fig to the constituent that you tin get large worth connected the squad with the large subordinate out. That is the lawsuit here. Green Bay backup QB Jordan Love could beryllium bully oregon helium could beryllium bad. But what I deliberation astir radical are forgetting is that he’s opposing a horrible Chiefs’ defence that ranks past successful the league successful yards per play allowed. Give maine an other 7 points oregon truthful of worth each time long.

By the numbers: After consecutive up wins of 3 points oregon less, Green Bay is 7-0 ATS and Kansas City is 2-8 ATS. … The Packers person won and covered 7 consecutive games overall.

Pick: Packers 28, Chiefs 24

Cardinals (7-1) astatine 49ers (3-4)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: 49ers -2½, 44½

Analysis: Arizona QB Kyler Murray is questionable due to the fact that of an ankle injury. His moving quality is cardinal to the Cardinals. If helium plays, his mobility could beryllium limited. When these teams met earlier this year, San Francisco mislaid 17-10 but outgained Arizona. I similar the 49ers successful a low-scoring contest.

By the numbers: San Francisco is connected a 13-2 nether tally astatine location against teams averaging much than 7.5 yards per walk attempt. … The 49ers are connected a 1-7 ATS descent astatine home.

Pick: 49ers 23, Cardinals 20

Titans (6-2) astatine Rams (7-1)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Rams -7, 53

Analysis: Similar to the Packers-Chiefs constituent spread, I judge this fig is an overreaction to Tennessee moving backmost Derrick Henry being out. The Titans are inactive a precise bully squad and I deliberation they tin inactive support this crippled person than galore expect. Look for a batch much passing attempts by Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill, which volition marque the implicit an enticing play.

By the numbers: The Rams are riding a 16-2 implicit streak against AFC South opponents and person gone implicit successful 7 of their past 9 games overall. … The Titans person a 28-10 implicit people since Tannehill took implicit arsenic QB. … Tennessee is connected a 7-2 ATS tally arsenic an underdog.

Pick: Rams 38, Titans 34

Bears (3-5) astatine Steelers (4-3)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Steelers -6½, 38½

Analysis: This is different pugnacious crippled to prime a side. But the nether looks tempting arsenic some teams conflict to score. Chicago ranks 31st successful the league successful scoring, averaging a paltry 15.4 points per game. Pittsburgh ranks 26th with 18.9 ppg.

By the numbers: The Steelers are 25th successful the league successful yards per play (5.2) and the Bears are dormant past successful yards per play (4.4). … Chicago besides ranks past successful the league successful passing yards with 127 per game. … Pittsburgh has a 1-5-1 nether grounds this play and the Bears person a 2-6 nether mark.

Pick: Steelers 21, Bears 17