Patriots-Buccaneers one of most likely Super Bowl matchups

When the Patriots mislaid 19-17 to the Buccaneers successful Week 4 to autumn to 1-3, a rematch successful the Super Bowl seemed inconceivable.

Eight weeks later, a Bill Belichick-Tom Brady showdown successful Super Bowl LVI appears precise possible.

In fact, according to Football Outsiders, a information analytics website, New England vs. Tampa Bay was the astir apt Super Bowl matchup heading into Week 12, with a 9.9 percent accidental of happening.

Based connected a parlay of each team’s league futures astatine BetMGM — wherever the Bucs are +210 favorites to triumph the NFC and the Pats are the +450 3rd prime to triumph the AFC — the likelihood are 16-1 that the rematch takes place.

“That would beryllium a monster matchup for the league, for TV and for our industry,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook manager Chuck Esposito said.

MGM Resorts manager of trading Jeff Stoneback agrees.

“You couldn’t constitute a communicative similar that,” helium said. “That would beryllium similar 1 of those Hollywood movies, and it has a bully anticipation of happening.”

Golden Nugget sportsbook manager Tony Miller said he’d marque Tampa Bay a 1-point favourite implicit New England connected a neutral field.

“I would emotion to spot that matchup, conscionable due to the fact that of each the props that would beryllium available,” Miller said. “But the Bucs person a overmuch tougher way than the Patriots.”

Books triumph again

New England (8-4) and Tampa Bay (8-3) delivered 2 of the biggest wins for bettors connected an NFL Sunday successful which Las Vegas sportsbooks reported being tiny winners.

The biggest favorites connected the committee astatine -7, the Patriots won and covered their sixth consecutive crippled successful a 36-13 rout of the Titans.

“The Patriots were the biggest loser for us,” Stoneback said. “They’re becoming a nationalist squad again.”

Bad beat

The Bucs covered arsenic 3-point roadworthy favorites implicit the Colts successful a 38-31 comeback triumph that ended with a atrocious bushed for Indianapolis bettors.

Tampa Bay rallied from a 24-14 halftime shortage to instrumentality a 31-24 pb successful the 4th quarter. After the Colts tied it with 3:29 left, Brady drove the Bucs into scope for a winning tract goal, which would’ve resulted successful a propulsion and a refund for astir bettors connected the game.

But with 20 seconds left, moving backmost Leonard Fournette broke escaped for a 28-yard touchdown tally to assistance Tampa Bay to a 38-31 triumph and cover.

The Colts, who had 5 turnovers, inactive had a accidental to unit overtime erstwhile Isaiah Rodgers returned the last kickoff 71 yards to the Bucs’ 32-yard enactment with 10 seconds left. But Carson Wentz’s archetypal walk fell incomplete, and the 2nd was intercepted adjacent the extremity line.

Underdog winners

Underdogs went 5-6 ATS with 5 outright wins by the Giants (+4, bushed Eagles 13-7); Jets (+3, bushed Texans 21-14); Broncos (+2½, bushed Chargers 28-13); Packers (+2, bushed Rams 36-28); and Dolphins (+1½, bushed Panthers 33-10).

Denver, Miami and the Giants were the biggest winners for the books, portion bettors won connected Green Bay’s upset of Los Angeles.

A Caesars Sportsbook bettor won a $445,000 wager connected the Packers connected the wealth enactment (+115).

Aaron Rodgers accounted for 3 TDs for Green Bay connected a fractured toed portion Rams QB Matthew Stafford threw a pick-six for the 3rd consecutive crippled successful L.A.’s 3rd consecutive loss.

“The NFL has been truthful hard to foretell this year, particularly implicit the past 3 oregon 4 weeks,” Westgate SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “Every clip we deliberation idiosyncratic is going to abstracted themselves from the remainder of the pack, they unexpectedly lose. I would expect that to proceed done the remainder of the play and astir apt successful the playoffs.

“I judge that Green Bay is the champion squad successful the league, though Arizona fans mightiness person thing to accidental astir that. There are astir apt 12 teams that tin triumph the Super Bowl. I’m inactive not sold connected the Patriots. Let’s spot what they bash against Buffalo.”

New England is simply a 3-point underdog astatine Buffalo adjacent week connected “Monday Night Football.”

Contact newsman Todd Dewey astatine tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 connected Twitter.