Raiders among biggest NFL Week 3 lookahead line moves

On the lookahead enactment astatine the Westgate SuperBook, which posts lines for NFL games 12 days successful advance, the Raiders opened arsenic 1-point favorites implicit the Dolphins successful Sunday’s matchup astatine Allegiant Stadium.

But aft the Raiders upset the Steelers connected Sunday and Miami was blown retired by Buffalo, the Silver and Black were reposted arsenic 4-point favorites — a important enactment determination that went done the cardinal fig of 3 and assumed that injured Dolphins backmost Tua Tagovailoa would beryllium ruled retired and replaced by Jacoby Brissett.

“Depending connected what you deliberation the quality is betwixt Tua and Brissett, you tin reason there’s immoderate worth connected Miami,” SuperBook manager John Murray said. “I don’t cognize if there’s a large quality betwixt Tua and Brissett, personally.”

Lookahead lines — which are wagered connected astir exclusively by crisp bettors — seldom determination overmuch betwixt the clip the SuperBook posts them astatine noon Tuesday to erstwhile it reposts the numbers astir 4 p.m. Sunday.

“Outside of an wounded to a quarterback, it’s precise antithetic for 1 to determination by much than a fractional constituent to a point,” Murray said.

Sharp strategy

But erstwhile a crisp play moves against the bettor based solely connected an overreaction, it typically pays to beryllium connected the crisp side.

“If you spot crisp guys consenting to instrumentality thing and a week later, they tin really get a amended number, past mostly speaking, it’s a bully spot to look,” Murray said. “Over the years, that’s been a beauteous bully method.”

There weren’t immoderate crisp plays that moved against them this week arsenic wiseguys astatine the Westgate wagered connected New England -2½ (now -3), Minnesota +1½ (still +1½) and Indianapolis +3, which is present +5½ lone due to the fact that injured Colts QB Carson Wentz is questionable.

“The bets from past Tuesday’s numbers each moved with the crisp guys,” Murray said. “That’s mostly however it goes.”

One enactment that moved based connected cognition is Arizona inching up from -6 to -7 implicit Jacksonville.

“Jacksonville moved not due to the fact that anybody got wounded but due to the fact that Jacksonville mislaid again and didn’t look bully and Arizona won,” Murray said.

The SuperBook has offered the lookahead lines for years and the crisp bets it gets helps it acceptable the market.

“You get invaluable accusation from your crisp customers. It makes it easier to bash the updated enactment connected Sunday knowing what the sharps did with the lookahead line,” said Circa sportsbook manager Chris Bennett, who worked astatine the SuperBook for 9 years.

Bucs-Pats

Looking up to NFL Week 4, the Buccaneers are 5½-point favorites implicit the Patriots successful Tom Brady’s much-anticipated instrumentality to New England.

“Let’s conscionable unreal New England has a truly bully triumph connected Sunday and Tampa Bay loses to the Rams, you don’t privation to set that lookahead fig excessively much,” Murray said. “If the fig gets changed drastically without injuries, that’s erstwhile determination tin beryllium value.”

The Rams opened arsenic 2½-point location favorites implicit the Bucs connected the lookahead enactment and adjusted enactment Sunday. But the favourite has flipped to Tampa Bay, which is present -1½ astatine Circa implicit Los Angeles.

“I deliberation the Buccaneers are conscionable the amended squad and request to beryllium favored successful that game,” Bennett said. “I don’t deliberation the home-field vantage is each that significant. I see LA to beryllium adjacent to the weakest of home-field advantages successful the NFL, on with Jacksonville.”

Wiseguy wagers

Bennett said Circa took crisp bets connected the Lions +9½ (now +8), the Football Team +9½ (now +7½) and the Bengals +4 (now +3).

The Steelers opened astatine -7 implicit Cincinnati connected the lookahead line, but the fig dropped due to the fact that of injuries to respective cardinal Pittsburgh players, including QB Ben Roethlisberger.

The Westgate took respective crisp bets connected Week 4 lookahead lines, including the Jets (+6½), Panthers (+5½, +5), Cardinals (+6), Seahawks (+3½) and Broncos (+1½).

Contact newsman Todd Dewey astatine tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 connected Twitter.