Russia Positioning Helicopters, in Possible Sign of Ukraine Plans

WASHINGTON — The fig of Russian troops astatine Ukraine’s borderline has remained dependable successful caller weeks, contempt U.S. quality predictions of a surge, but American officials accidental that President Vladimir V. Putin has begun taking steps to determination subject helicopters into place, a imaginable motion that readying for an onslaught continues.

American officials had expected further Russian troops to watercourse toward the Ukrainian borderline successful December and aboriginal January, gathering toward a unit of 175,000.

While unit movements person slowed, determination are inactive 100,000 subject unit adjacent the border and present the Russians person positioned further onslaught craft there, American officials said. Attack and transport helicopters, on with crushed onslaught combatant jets, would beryllium a captious Russian advantage, should Mr. Putin determine to invade Ukraine.

U.S. officials accidental the Russian president’s model for an penetration is limited, dictated by temperatures that volition frost the crushed — allowing for the casual question of dense vehicles and instrumentality — earlier a outpouring thaw, which could statesman by March, creates a muddy quagmire.

But a comparatively mild wintertime has slowed the ground’s freezing, and Mr. Putin’s deadline for committing his forces has slipped further toward the spring, officials say. The hard wintertime frost that typically comes to Ukraine by January has not happened successful galore areas of the country. As agelong arsenic the crushed remains muddy, elder medication officials said, Mr. Putin mightiness beryllium forced to propulsion backmost a crushed violative until February astatine the earliest.

To get a amended consciousness of imaginable conditions this year, the Biden medication has enlisted meteorologists to look much intimately astatine the apt upwind successful Ukraine successful the coming weeks, according to a U.S. official.

The officials interviewed for this nonfiction requested anonymity to sermon delicate and classified assessments of Russian subject movements, on with American efforts to larn astir those deployments.

The United States has been regularly flying Air Force RC-135 Rivet Joint electronic-eavesdropping planes implicit Ukraine since Dec. 27. The planes let American quality operatives to perceive to Russian crushed commanders’ communications. The Air Force is besides flying E-8 JSTARS ground-surveillance planes to way the Russian unit buildup and the movements of the forces.

The United States is peculiarly funny successful indications that Russia whitethorn deploy immoderate of its tactical atomic weapons to the border, a determination that Russian officials person suggested could beryllium an option.

The quality agencies person told medication officials that portion the Russians person continued readying an invasion, they bash not judge Mr. Putin has decided whether to statesman an incursion. For their part, Russian officials reiterated connected Monday that they bash not program to invade Ukraine.

A fierce diplomatic propulsion to springiness Mr. Putin face-saving alternatives to subject enactment began this week successful Geneva, wherever Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman led a U.S. delegation for talks with her Russian counterpart, Sergei A. Ryabkov, and different Russian officials.

But Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken told reporters astatine the State Department connected Friday that “actual advancement is going to beryllium precise hard to make, if not impossible, successful an situation of escalation by Russia.” And aft 8 hours of meetings with the Russians, Ms. Sherman told reporters that specified de-escalation had not occurred and that the talks had amounted simply to “a discussion, a amended knowing of each different and each other’s priorities.”

Mr. Putin has made respective demands, including that NATO formally pledge ne'er to admit Ukraine and Georgia arsenic members, that U.S. and NATO officials telephone nonstarters. Instead, the United States is dangling much humble offers, similar assurances that American missiles volition not beryllium placed successful Ukrainian territory — thing Washington has ne'er earnestly contemplated.

Despite publically expressing uncertainty astir Mr. Putin’s intentions, U.S. officials person assessed that determination is small likelihood that helium volition backmost down from what they person described arsenic maximalist positions. The Biden medication has promised allies that it volition not marque immoderate offers to Russia that they bash not support, taking disconnected the array immoderate benignant of unilateral unit withdrawal from Eastern Europe oregon pledge not to further integrate Ukraine with the remainder of Europe.

Mr. Putin has massed his forces on Russia’s borderline with eastbound Ukraine, wherever for astir 8 years helium has supported a pro-Russian insurgency that has near up to 14,000 radical dead.

In aboriginal December, American quality agencies predicted that Mr. Putin was readying to stitchery arsenic galore arsenic 175,000 troops for a imaginable incursion into Ukraine.

Weeks later, Mr. Putin withdrew immoderate 10,000 troops adjacent Ukraine. But American officials said those troops were not portion of the unit that Mr. Putin appeared to beryllium gathering for a imaginable penetration successful January oregon February.

Understand the Escalating Tensions Over Ukraine

Still, quality officials thought determination would beryllium much of a unit buildup passim December. A elder medication authoritative said the Russian deployments were continuing, but astatine a slower gait than successful aboriginal December.

Currently, Russia has conscionable nether 60 battalion tactical groups connected the ground, oregon determination betwixt 85,000 and 100,000 troops, according to American officials. Those troops person conducted exercises and drills, demonstrating that the Russian forces are astatine their highest levels of readiness.

In summation to gathering up aviation assets, the Russian authorities has ordered successful much units specializing successful logistics. While aviation assets would beryllium captious to protecting crushed troops during the invasion, the logistics units would beryllium needed to enactment the crushed forces successful the lawsuit Mr. Putin orders his forces crossed the border.

More than 150 U.S. subject advisers are successful Ukraine, trainers who person for years worked retired of the grooming crushed adjacent Lviv, successful the country’s west, acold from the beforehand lines. The existent radical includes Special Operations forces, mostly Army Green Berets, arsenic good arsenic National Guard trainers from Florida’s 53rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team.

Military advisers from astir a twelve allied countries are besides successful Ukraine, U.S. officials said. Several NATO countries, including Britain, Canada, Lithuania and Poland, person regularly sent grooming forces to the country.

In the lawsuit of a full-scale Russian invasion, the United States intends to determination its subject trainers retired of the state quickly. But it is imaginable that immoderate Americans could enactment to counsel Ukrainian officials successful Kyiv, the capital, oregon supply front-line support, a U.S. authoritative said.

Pentagon officials person warned their Russian counterparts that they request to de-escalate the situation, due to the fact that an penetration would not extremity good for Moscow. Gen. Mark A. Milley, the president of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke bluntly to Gen. Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s main of the wide staff, connected Dec. 22. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III followed that with much diplomatic comments to Russia’s defence minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, connected Thursday.

On Monday, General Milley spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart, Lt. Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, astir the Russian unit beingness and the information situation.

There is inactive nary statement wrong the administration, overmuch little the alliance, connected however oregon erstwhile to enactment an insurgency successful Ukraine should Russia behaviour a full-scale invasion, grow its beingness successful the Donbas portion oregon immoderate different scenario, according to a elder medication official. Officials successful the Biden medication are intensely debating what the disposable options mightiness beryllium depending connected which situations play out.

David E. Sanger contributed reporting.