Week 18 challenges bookmakers with motivational angles, COVID

Week 18 of the NFL play tin unit sportsbooks to bash immoderate unusual things.

Circa Sports has the Green Bay Packers favored by 3½ points astatine the Detroit Lions — a enactment sportsbook manager Chris Bennett said helium knows is wrong. The Packers should beryllium favored by much oregon fewer, depending connected whether their starters volition play Sunday, and for however long.

But that’s not wide close now. All Bennett tin bash present is wait, show each the quality outlets and beryllium acceptable to determination the enactment aggressively if respected bettors commencement firing successful bounds wagers.

“Week 18 is by acold the astir challenging week of the NFL play to book,” Bennett said. “… It’s pugnacious erstwhile you’re going to bent a enactment wherever you cognize it’s going to adjacent a batch antithetic that you’re hanging.”

Handicapping the last week of the NFL regular play has ever progressive looking astatine motivational angles. Does a squad person thing to play for? Will teams that are retired of the playoffs play hard, particularly for a lame-duck coach?

Now furniture successful the hazard of subordinate absences due to the fact that of COVID protocols, which could harvest up astatine immoderate time. A large handicapping fig connected Wednesday could go an atrocious 1 by Sunday.

Red Rock Resort sportsbook manager Chuck Esposito pointed retired that motivations tin alteration adjacent during the game. The New England Patriots tin triumph the AFC East connected Sunday with a triumph implicit Miami and a Buffalo nonaccomplishment to the New York Jets.

“If the Bills are up 34-3 midway done the 2nd quarter, bash the Patriots support their starters in?” Esposito asked. “You person to scoreboard ticker to immoderate degree.”

Besides Packers-Lions, immoderate of the games bookmakers person had to support a adjacent oculus connected include:

— Dallas astatine Philadelphia: The enactment opened Cowboys -3 with the teams expected to beryllium astatine afloat strength, went to -7 connected the quality that the Eagles were apt resting cardinal players, past has travel backmost down to -4½ with Dallas present expected to bash the same.

— Cincinnati astatine Cleveland: The crippled opened Bengals -3 erstwhile it appeared they were playing for playoff seeding, but has shifted to Browns -6 with Cincinnati opting to remainder banged-up backmost Joe Burrow and moving backmost Joe Mixon successful COVID protocol. Bennett said helium was gladsome this quality came retired aboriginal successful the week.

— Carolina astatine Tampa Bay: The Buccaneers tin determination up from the No. 3 effect to No. 2 if they triumph and the Rams lose, but is that capable crushed to play backmost Tom Brady and the different starters against the Panthers? Bettors look skeptical, arsenic the enactment is sitting astatine Bucs -8 contempt them laying -10½ successful Carolina 2 weeks agone (and winning 32-6).

Bennett said his extremity is to not get deed with a bounds stake connected the aforesaid broadside 3 times successful a row, moving the enactment aggregate points rapidly if necessary.

It’s a rush, but it’s not fun.

“I don’t bask that due to the fact that I can’t docket my beingness astir it,” helium said. “I don’t privation to beryllium successful beforehand of my machine each hr of the day.”

Contact Jim Barnes astatine jbarnes@reviewjournal.com oregon 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV connected Twitter.